You'll Probably Do a Double Take Over What a Top Pollster Said About the 2020 Cycle

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Posted: Nov 11, 2020 9:25 PM
You'll Probably Do a Double Take Over What a Top Pollster Said About the 2020 Cycle

Source: AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

We’re still in the midst of counting votes and investigating allegations of voter fraud, but the media has called the 2020 election for Joe Biden. Yet, out of the many stories about this cycle, one that will soon bubble up soon will be about the polling…again. Pollsters who had Biden in the lead will take a victory lap. They shouldn’t. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver says, “There's not actually much evidence that polls are becoming less accurate. They had perhaps their best year ever in 2018. 2016 and 2020 polling errors were slightly worse than average but within a fairly normal range.” 

Even as Biden is on the cusp of victory, the margins were wrong. Did Biden win by 10-14 points? No. Yes, some surveys had the former VP with that wide of a lead. Even Biden’s own campaign team admitted that they weren’t ahead by double-digits. Another prediction that was off was one from CNN, where they said the odds of Biden winning the election dipped if he lost Florida. He did lose Florida. He might become the president-elect. 

And then, there’s the slew of House races that these clowns blew. Wasn’t the GOP supposed to lose seats? Democrats were supposed to gain 10-15 seats. That didn’t happen. Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO) was long written off as toast, but Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) won in North Carolina. Susan Collins won in Maine, albeit not by her usual benchmark. She usually gets around 60 percent of the vote or more in her elections. Yes, the Kavanaugh Supreme Court fight made her a target. She survived. Her Democratic opponent, Sara Gideon, was supposed to beat her by…12 points. Collins ended up beating her 51/42. There was no blue wave.  Support from Asian, Hispanic, and black voters increased for Trump. 

Being off by that much, regardless if Biden wins or not, is not good. It’s called getting lucky. The pollsters miss the House races, Senate races, and get the margins for the presidential totally wrong, but things are not getting less accurate, says Nate Silver. Oh, and let's not forget that FiveThirtyEight actually published something about Democrats possibly picking up 13 Senate seats. Also, wasn't Lindsey Graham supposed to be in serious trouble this cycle. HA HA HA HA.

Hell, I was wrong about this race. I'll admit it, which is something these polling clowns won't do.