Tuesday night was nothing short of a blue tsunami, as I’m sure you need no reminder. But one of the more striking results was that even as Republicans lost, Republican-backed ballot measures, from voter ID to restrictions on transgender policies, across the country won. That should send a very particular message to Republicans heading into 2028.

While the country saw Democrat after Democrat win, majorities in Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Arkansas, Kansas, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska backed ballot measures requiring voter identification or limiting voting to American citizens. In Arizona and Nebraska, transgender-related ballot measures also passed overwhelmingly. Voters in several states, even California, also overwhelmingly rejected tax increases.

That points to a distinction Republicans need to understand if we are to move forward effectively: last night was a referendum against Republicans, not an endorsement of Democrats. Dissatisfied Republican voters and independents weren’t suddenly embracing socialism or progressivism. They wanted a check on President Trump’s use of executive power and on policies that, although initially popular, became unpopular because of how they were rolled out. Kristi Noem’s handling of ICE raids is but one example. 

But the other thing Republicans need to understand is that cultural issues mean little without good economic policy. Tax cuts alone are not an economic agenda, and neither is the One Big Beautiful Bill. Tariffs, meanwhile, a central piece of the president's economic policies are affecting everything from groceries to building materials, and exit poll after exit poll shows that the vast majority of the country dislikes them. 

Further data points to their inflationary effects. And to those who say they are bringing back much-needed manufacturing jobs, the majority of that growth has come in non-tariffed sectors and has been driven by growth in artificial intelligence. Dragging out the Iran war is also, in effect, economic policy, as refined oil still isn’t flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz and the bottom line for every American has increased along with gas prices.

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And that is where popular cultural policies stop being enough to win elections. Voters can support voter ID laws and transgender restrictions and still vote Republicans out over the cost of living. Conservatives may have forgotten that, yes, deportations were popular in 2024, and so were anti-DEI policies. But what was really at the center of President Trump’s victory? The promise to put the American economy back on track after four years of inflation and an affordability crisis that had gotten out of control. At its core, his promise was an economic one. And voters seem to believe it was a false promise.

You can’t lower grocery prices, bring down gas costs, or make housing affordable on cultural policy. These are important issues, but they are no substitute for an economic agenda that makes people’s lives more affordable. Republicans were quick to write those concerns off, and Tuesday night showed us where that mistake leads. 

The solution? Start with the free-market capitalism conservatives claim to believe in. 

We invoke Ronald Reagan, praise capitalism, and condemn socialism. But when it comes time to defend it, or even advocate it, suddenly markets aren’t good enough. 

Crony capitalism? Thank government favoritism and the refusal to let markets operate freely. Globalism? Again, look at regulations that make it harder to produce at home. Manufacturing declines? Look at those same regulations and the refusal to automate and compete. 

Name a problem and I'll show you precisely how failure to live up to free markets has produced it.

Conservatives want good economic policy? Well, they’ve spent the last year since Mamdani’s victory touting the victories of capitalism over socialism, then doing nothing to advocate for markets and criticizing them at every turn. We’ve known the case for free markets since Adam Smith published The Wealth of Nations, and still Republicans have decided they know better than the most productive system every created by man. 

The 2028 election will be yet another referendum on economics, and if Republicans’ solution is to lean on cultural issues again, they can expect to lose.