Golden Globe Award Predictions for Film and Television

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Posted: Jan 06, 2019 12:00 PM
Golden Globe Award Predictions for Film and Television

2018 has been a dearth of good movies and television. Just think about it, how many movies did you see this year and actually enjoyed them? The ones that stand out though are truly the stand-out performances of this year, and thankfully, many will be recognized during the 76th Annual Golden Globe Awards show that will take place live tonight at 8pm EST on NBC. 

For those who may not be familiar with the Globes, they are the big precursor to the annual Oscar film awards ceremony. The Globes give us a sneak peak at what and whom might win at the Oscars. While the Oscars only recognize achievements in film, the Globes are rare in that they recognize both film and television. 

The Globes are organized and voted on by the 90 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). In contrast, the Oscar winners are nominated and voted on by over 7,000 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists.

It was at the Golden Globe Awards ceremony of 2017 that Meryl Streep made her infamous speech about Donald Trump, which began a torrent of anti-Trump, anti-Republican speeches at pretty much every televised award show thereafter. Not surprisingly, award show ratings declined precipitously as many Trump supporters and conservatives stopped watching in droves. 

While this year’s Golden Globes show will most likely continue the partisan politics and Trump puns ad nauseum, there are some genuine nominations worthy of consideration and recognition, especially with Roma, A Star Is Born, Alfonso Cuaron, and for finally rewarding (hopefully!) The Americans for its truly outstanding run on television as one of the best shows in the last decade. 

As much as conservatives despise Hollywood, it’s important to remember that we must try and separate between the petty politics of its practitioners, with that of true art. Every once in awhile, Hollywood produces genuine advancements in the arts of motion pictures and television. Conservatives should embrace good work when it is real, fair, entertaining, and helps us better understand the human condition. 

In my attempt to bridge this separation of art and politics, below is my breakdown of each award category. Here’s a nomination form if you’d like to fill out your own. Enjoy!

MOVIES:

BEST PICTURE – DRAMA

  • BlacKkKlansman
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Black Panther
  • A Star Is Born
  • Bohemian Rhapsody

It’s a travesty that the Golden Globes did not nominate Alfonso Cuaron’s masterpiece here, Roma. There is some irony here as the Globes are organized by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. You would think that they’d nominate the most talked-about foreign film in the world right now. Having said that, among these choices, A Star Is Born is deserving the win. Bradley Cooper’s reimagination of this classic was tour de force and gutsy, as this was his inaugural directing effort. While Bohemian Rhapsody is underrated, I think its best shot is for Best Actor for Rami Malek.

SHOULD WIN: A Star Is Born

WILL WIN: A Star Is Born

BEST PICTURES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL

  • The Favourite
  • Green Book
  • Vice
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Crazy Rich Asians

So the betting man would probably bet on Vice since it received the most nominations out of any movie for the Golden Globes, totaling six. The HFPA loves any chance it can get to rehash and tarnish the Bush presidency. It might still win, but my guess is that they will vote for the critic darling of the year, The Favourite. The movie is about a female love triangle with a top-notch cast.

Might Win: Vice

Will Win: The Favourite 

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

  • Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
  • Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
  • Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
  • Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
  • John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

This is easily a race between Malek and Cooper. Ironically, both are for portraying musicians – one real, one fictional but with a storied movie history. Cooper certainly impressed everyone with his performance in A Star Is Born. But I think the real stand out is Rami Malek’s performance of Freddie Mercury – lead singer of rock group Queen in Bohemian Rhapsody. The concert alone at the end of the movie makes him worthy of this. He was Freddie Mercury. This will be a nail biter, but I think Malek will surprise everyone and beat out Cooper.

Should Win: Rami Malek

Might Win: Bradley Cooper

Will Win: Rami Malek 

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

  • Glenn Close, The Wife
  • Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
  • Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
  • Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Rosamund Pike, A Private War

I think this is really a race between Lady Gaga – the star of the hour, and Glenn Close – the consummate actress’ actress. With the latter – no one saw The Wife, where nearly everyone has seen A Star Is Born and Gaga is hot right now, especially as she will most likely win the best Original Song too. Gaga will get this. 

Should Win: Lady Gaga

Might Win: Glenn Close

Will Win: Lady Gaga

BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

There is really a race between Christian Bale, for his dead lookalike portrayal of Dick Cheney, or Viggo Mortensen for Green Book. Vice received the most nominations (six) and has awarded Bale in the past. Vice has received split reviews from critics and fans but most everyone agrees that Bale is a tour de force, even if this story is outrageous. Mortensen has found himself in some controversy as the movie has been criticized by Social Justice Warriors for race-themed elements.

Should Win: Christian Bale

Might Win: Viggo Mortensen

Will Win: Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Charlize Theron, Tully

Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

This is another two-person race here between Emily Blunt, who’s had an amazing year in both her roles as Mary Poppins and as the mother in A Quiet Place, who is also married to John Krasinski. And Olivia Colman, who is not necessarily a household name, but really is star of the critical and quirky darling of the year, The Favourite. HFPA has a tendency to award the most quirky of sorts and I believe they’ll continue that trend by award Colman. But I won’t be surprised if Blunt pulls this off, and will be happy if she does. 

Should Win: Emily Blunt

Will Win: Olivia Colman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 

  • Mahershala Ali, Green Book
  • Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
  • Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
  • Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
  • Sam Rockwell, Vice

This is ridiculous that Sam Elliott is not listed here for his moving and emotional role in A Star Is Born! Hopefully the Oscars will correct this. Based on the options left, this is will most likely go to Mahershala Ali for Green Book. Even though Oscar gave him the Best Supporting Actor win a couple of years ago for Moonlight, the HFPA did not award him this same honor that same year. Richard Grant has been getting some last-minute buzz with his performance, but no one had really seen his movie.

Might Win: Richard E. Grant

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Amy Adams, Vice
  • Claire Foy, First Man
  • Regina King,If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Emma Stone, The Favourite
  • Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

This is probably a slight toss up between Amy Adams for her role as Lynne Cheney in Vice, and Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk, which most people haven’t seen. It’s obvious that the HFPA likes Vice and Adams is a favorite and consummate nominee for them, so a betting man would bet on her. But I think the real stand out performance of the film that will be recognized will be for Christian Bale. I also think the HFPA will award Adams for Best Actress in a TV Limited Series for her outstanding role in Sharp Objects

Might Win: Amy Adams

Will Win: Regina King

BEST DIRECTOR

  • Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
  • Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
  • Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
  • Adam McKay, Vice
  • Peter Farrelly, Green Book

This is easily a race between Alfonso Cuaron and Bradley Cooper. Before I saw Roma, I would’ve given this to Cooper for his sheer guts for directing this remake of a classic Hollywood movie, but after seeing the masterclass performance of Cuaron in his semi-autobiographical movie, Roma, it’s his to lose. This movie will be studied by film schools for decades to come. This is not to say that Cooper is not worthy here, but it’s his inaugural directorial effort, and if he keeps making movies like A Star Is Born, he is bound to win here eventually. This was Cooper’s until Roma was released.

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Might Win: Bradley Cooper

Will Win: Alfonse Cuaron

BEST SCREENPLAY 

  • Roma
  • The Favourite
  • If Beale Street Could Talk
  • Vice
  • Green Book

This is a tough one. Roma is beloved by its followers (me included), but it’s not the script that’s the most memorable part of this movie. Green Book and If Beale Street Could Talk seem like the “classic” choices to pick here, but I think this will really come down to Adam McKay (Vice), who wrote The Big Short a couple years ago, and Deborah Davis & Tony McNamara for the critical darling The Favourite. The HFPA seem to have a thing for Vice, and McKay is well-liked, but The Favourite is the quirky odd-ball pick here that the HFPA likes to reward. 

Might Win: Vice

Will Win: The Favourite

BEST FOREIGN FILM

  • Capernaum
  • Girl
  • Never Look Away
  • Roma
  • Shoplifters

Roma, without a single doubt. This was the best movie of the year and should’ve also been nominated for Best Picture – Drama. A beautiful and moving film that will be studied by film classes for decades to come. I can’t wait to see it again in a movie theater (it was released through Netflix!).

Should Win: Roma

Will Win: Roma

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

  • A Quiet Place
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Black Panther
  • First Man
  • Mary Poppins Returns 

This is either going to Justin Hurwitz for First Man, or for Mary Poppins Returns. One of the few, and only things, I liked about First Man was the score, but the HFPA likes to reward musicals here. Mary Poppins is beloved and most people seem to like the new music. Oscar may have a different vote on this, but I think the HFPA will reward MPR as they have a history of choosing musicals here. 

Should Win: First Man

Might Win: First Man

Will Win: Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  • "All The Stars," Black Panther 
  • "Girl in the Movies," Dumpling
  • "Requiem for a Private War," A Private War
  • "Revelation," Boy Erased
  • "Shallow,"A Star is Born

This is not a contest. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born, sung by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper, will easily win. 

Should Win: Shallow, A Star is Born

Will Win: Shallow, A Star Is Born

Best Animated Film

  • Incredibles 2
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mirai
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet
  • Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

I’ll be honest – I didn’t see any of these. Incredibles 2 though was one of the biggest animated box office hits ever, and it doesn’t hurt that Pixar has won this category numerous times. Spiderman though has some big buzz behind it, but it may’ve come out too late for enough people to see it. I won’t be surprised if it wins, but I think the safer bet would be Incredibles 2. I go back and forth on this though! Don’t hold me to this.

Might Win: Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse

Will Win: Incredibles 2

TELEVISION:

BEST TV SERIES – DRAMA

  • The Americans
  • Bodyguard
  • Homecoming
  • Killing Eve
  • Pose

The Americans – they’ve never one. In its final season run, this is HFPA’s last chance to give it them. HFPA has a history of doing this, a la Breaking Bad. Having said that, there is overwhelming buzz that Killing Eve will win. HFPA also has a history of rewarding first-year runs of hot shows. Sadly, I think they’ll do the latter again and Killing Eve will win this, but I hope I’m very wrong! 

Should Win: The Americans

Might Win: The Americans

Will Win: Killing Eve

BEST TV SERIES – COMEDY

  • The Good Place
  • The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • The Kominsky Method
  • Kidding
  • Barry

Barry was the surprise hit of the year here. No one was expecting much from this, but when you see it, you realize the freshness and overall fun you have with this show. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel won last year, but the second season doesn’t seem to be living up to the first. The only other stand out here is The Kominsky Method, starring Michael Douglas and Alan Arkin. If you’ve seen it, you love it; it may sneak this out, but my money is on Barry.

Should Win: Barry

Might Win: The Kominsky Method or The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Will Win: Barry

BEST TV LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE

  • The Alienist
  • The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  • Escape at Dannemora
  • Sharp Objects
  • A Very English Scandal

The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story should win this. FX won this two years ago for the OJ Simpson series and might’ve worked its magic again. It’s possible that the spoiler will be A Very English Scandal, which stars Hugh Grant in a comeback effort. 

Might Win: A Very English Scandal

Will Win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

BEST ACTOR – TV DRAMA

  • Jason Bateman, Ozark
  • Stephan James, Homecoming
  • Richard Madden, Bodyguard
  • Billy Porter, Pose
  • Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Matthew Rhys will deservedly win this. He’s never won before, and the HFPA will want to reward him and his co-star as this was their final season, and he really was the stand out performance of the show this last year. HFPA has a history of rewarding late deserving winners of years past in their final season, i.e. Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) and Jon Hamm (Mad Men). 

Should Win: Matthew Rhys

Will Win: Matthew Rhys

BEST ACTRESS – TV DRAMA

  • Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
  • Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
  • Sandra Oh,Killing Eve
  • Julia Roberts, Homecoming
  • Keri Russell, The Americans

Keri Russell should have won this award years ago, seriously. The last season of The Americans was not her best though. I think the HFPA will give their love to Matthew Rhys only, sadly. Sandra Oh is hosting the Golden Globes, and really was the breakout hit of the year, but Julia Roberts’ star power and critical love for Homecoming might help her win this. 

Should Win: Keri Russell

Might Win: Julia Roberts

Will Win: Sandra Oh

BEST ACTOR – TV COMEDY

  • Sasha Baron Cohen, Who Is America?
  • Jim Carrey, Kidding
  • Michael Douglas,The Kominsky Method
  • Donald Glover, Atlanta
  • Bill Hader, Barry

Jim Carrey’s show is just awful. Atlanta is not as hot as it used to be. Cohen was funny in Who Is America, but that really wasn’t for a traditional performance. I think this is down to Bill Hader and Michael Douglas. I think the HFPA will want to reward The Kominsky Method for something, and Michael Douglas seems to be the best way to do so.

Might Win: Bill Hader

Will Win: Michael Douglas

BEST ACTRESS – TV COMEDY

  • Kristen Bell, The Good Place
  • Candice Bergen, Murphy Brown
  • Alison Brie, Glow
  • Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Debra Messing, Will & Grace

This is really a tough one. Kristen Bell and The Good Place have its followers, but the show, in my opinion, is really overrated. If my predictions are correct, Barry will win for Best TV Comedy Series, but the HFPA may want to reward Rachel Brosnahan for her mesmerizing performance again in The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, even though the second season may not be as good as the first one. 

Might Win: Kristin Bell

Will Win: Rachel Brosnahan

BEST ACTOR – TV LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE

  • Antonio Banderas,Genius: Picasso
  • Daniel Bruhl,The Alienist
  • Darren Criss,The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  • Benedict Cumberbatch,Patrick Melrose
  • Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal 

While Hugh Grant’s big comeback was heralded throughout the year with A Very English Scandal, the HFPA has a history of rewarding both the winner of the Best TV Limited Series and its leading actor(s). I think Criss will win this, but I would not be surprised if Grant pulls this out.

Might Win: Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal

Will Win: Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

BEST ACTRESS – TV LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE

  • Amy Adams, Sharp Objects
  • Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora
  • Connie Britton, Dirty John
  • Laura Dern, The Tale
  • Regina King, Seven Seconds

Ironically, both Amy Adams and Regina King are nominated here as well as Best Actress – Drama! If Amy Adams does NOT win for her role in Vice, she will win here. She was the strongest part in Sharp Objects and was its driving force. The HFPA love her and have nominated her over a half a dozen times, and she’s won twice. Only spoiler would potentially be Patricia Arquette.

Might Win: Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora

Will Win: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – TV LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE

  • Alan Arkin,The Kominsky Method
  • Kieran Culkin, Succession
  • Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  • Ben Whishaw,A Very English Scandal
  • Henry Winkler, Barry

This is a little tough. The Gianni Versace movie is loved, so Edgar Martinez could win this. But so is Henry Winkler in Barry, and Alan Arkin in The Kominsky Method. This is a three-sided coin flip, but I think Winkler will win the day. His comeback is a huge story and really is one of the best parts about Barry. The scene where he goes to the audition is one of the best and saddest scenes in the show. Arkin is beloved, but Michael Douglas’ character will probably be the one awarded for their show this year.

Should Win: Henry Winkler, Barry

Might Win: Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method

Will Win: Henry Winkler, Barry

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – TV LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE

  • Alex Bornstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
  • Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects
  • Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story
  • Thandie Newton, Westworld
  • Yvonne Strahovski,The Handmaid’s Tale

This was Thandie Newton’s standout year for Westworld, but she is the only nomination from the show this year – crazy! But I think that means there is a not a lot of love for its second season, which is tragic. I think Penelope Cruz has a shot here because her limited series should win, but many believe that Patricia Clarkson was the other standout role in Sharp Objects, I’m going to give the edge to her.

Should Win: Thandie Newton, Westworld

Might Win: Penelope Cruz, The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story

Will Win: Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects