Elon Musk has repeatedly declared that his ultimate goal is the settlement of Mars. Although he recently said that he wants to build a city on the Moon first, he has by no means abandoned his Mars ambitions. In fact, the goal is explicitly mentioned in SpaceX’s IPO prospectus.
Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society and the most important thinker who inspired Musk’s vision, argues that colonizing Mars and building cities there is technically feasible. The real question, however, is who will pay for it. Any large-scale settlement will ultimately require private investment and entrepreneurship.
One of the advantages enjoyed by a Martian colony, Zubrin argues, is its strategic position relative to the asteroid belt. Accessing many resource-rich asteroids from Mars could be easier and cheaper than doing so from Earth.
The difficult conditions on Mars would foster an extraordinary culture of innovation. Just as frontier societies on Earth often developed practical solutions to survive, Martians would be forced to become highly inventive.
When discussing exports, it is a mistake to focus primarily on physical goods. Zubrin believes that intellectual property could become one of Mars’s most valuable exports. Because settlers would constantly face challenges that require new solutions, innovation would be unavoidable. He expects breakthroughs in automation, robotics, artificial intelligence, agriculture, biotechnology, and energy production.
Labor shortages would encourage the development of advanced robots and automated systems. The limitations of greenhouse agriculture would stimulate innovations in highly productive crops and food technologies. Scarce energy resources could accelerate progress in advanced nuclear fission and fusion technologies.
According to Zubrin, many of these inventions would have enormous value on Earth. Martian companies could patent their innovations and license them globally, generating substantial revenue. Intellectual property, rather than minerals or manufactured goods, may therefore become the first major export industry of Mars.
I believe Zubrin is right, and Martian cities will look very different from cities on Earth. For one thing, robots will perform virtually every task that can be automated. Unlike humans, they are far less affected by low atmospheric pressure, the absence of oxygen, or high radiation levels. They can operate continuously without food, sleep, vacations, or coffee breaks. As robotic technology continues to improve, it is likely that much of the labor required to build and maintain Martian settlements will be performed by machines.
There is also significant potential for profitable real estate transactions on Mars. Assuming that private property rights exist there—and colonization would be difficult to imagine without them—a vibrant market for land could emerge surprisingly quickly. Investors on Earth may speculate on Martian property values, hoping to sell plots later at a profit. Land located near potential water sources would likely command especially high prices.
Mars could also create entirely new opportunities in advertising, media, and entertainment. The planet’s gravity is only 38 percent that of Earth, making possible sporting competitions unlike anything we know today. Athletes could jump higher, run differently, and perform feats that would be impossible on Earth. Such events could attract global audiences and become major commercial enterprises.
Some authors believe Mars will eventually attract tourists. Climbers may dream of ascending Olympus Mons, the largest volcano in the solar system. Standing roughly two and a half times taller than Mount Everest and covering an area so vast that it would stretch from New York to Montreal if placed on Earth, it represents one of the most extraordinary natural landmarks imaginable.
In his book The Future of Humanity, physicist Michio Kaku argues that walking across the Martian landscape would be a hiker’s dream. Given the breathtaking images already sent back by robotic probes, it is easy to understand the appeal.
Nevertheless, I remain skeptical about large-scale tourism on Mars. The journey would take six to nine months each way, and launch opportunities occur only every 26 months. A tourist would have to dedicate several years of their life to such a trip. That is a commitment only a very small number of wealthy and adventurous individuals would be willing to make.
Tourism on the Moon is far more plausible. A lunar vacation might require only a few weeks, making it accessible to a much larger number of travelers. For this reason, while the Moon may become a major tourist destination, Mars is likely to remain primarily a place for settlers, entrepreneurs, scientists, engineers, and pioneers rather than vacationers.
Rainer Zitelmann is the author of the book “New Space Capitalism”