Are the Americans coming to the aid of the Iranian people?
At Harvard, I knew a very bright young woman whose grandfather was personally close to several Democratic presidents. She once told me that when President Kennedy decided not to provide air cover to the Cuban emigres planning to overthrow Castro, it was he whom the president sent to give them the news. The rest is history, as they say, and the events of the failed attack are generally known as “The Bay of Pigs.”
Attacking Iran is not a trivial undertaking. The reasons are multifold: the Iranians do have missiles and can shoot back. Additionally, what kind of attack would make a real difference in the protests/revolution presently consuming Iran? If one knocked out Iranian oil production, that would further crush the mullah’s piggy bank; on the other hand, if the theocracy fails, you want oil coming online pronto so as to provide income for the new country to emerge from the fighting. Do you try to kill the leadership? Can you? Do you attack IRGC facilities? Do you send in drones to bomb the Basij guys on the motorbikes? I am sure that U.S. planners have the ultimate in data and capabilities at their disposal. But is there something that can be done that would significantly tilt the protest playing field in the direction of the millions who are literally risking their lives by marching in the streets? I would hope so, but I don’t know.
The 12-day war from the middle of last year was a learning experience for all involved. While Israel apparently batted down 82 percent of the missiles sent this way, some got through, and some of those led to mass casualties and widespread destruction. I believe that the official death toll was 85, which is 85 too many, but far fewer than the 500 that the government estimated would be killed in such a war. Israel, both on the ground and in the air, had assets dedicated to destroying missiles, launchers, and launch crews. If the U.S. attacks, will it have to dedicate a portion of its efforts to destroying missiles before they can be launched against Israel or U.S. bases? Israel has already said that if any Iranian projectiles come here, there will be no Round 2: Israel will finish off the regime. Donald Trump has run very clean attacks in Venezuela and Iran, and I don’t think that he wants to see part of the U.S. Air Force destroyed on the tarmac of the various bases in the region. It has been said that Saudi Arabia and Qatar will not let the U.S. use their airspace to attack the mullahs. So where do you launch? Pakistan?
Donald Trump and the United States of America technically owe the protesters in Iran nothing. We’re all hoping that they win, but I don’t plan to suit up or send a check to help them win. One may note that, like Kennedy, Trump has explicitly mentioned that “help was coming” or that if the government murdered enough protesters, the U.S. would get involved. Donald Trump, if anything, is a man of his word. Many times during his presidential period, he has enacted laws or put forth programs that he promised during his campaigns. Closed border? Check. Ejection of illegals? Check. Fairer international trade? Check. End of guys in women’s sports? Check. And much, much more. The president had no obligation to put out on Truth Social that America is coming and the like, but he did. While there are rumors of wildly different numbers of protesters murdered by the state, there are also rumors as to the U.S.’ plans. Thursday morning, it was reported that the attack was about to start when the president canceled it. I don’t know if this information is correct, but it gives the general feeling here in Israel: should we get ready to run to the bomb shelter? With my current bum back, it might just be to go under the covers.
As with the Bay of Pigs, how hard is the opposition fighting because it believes that the U.S. cavalry is right over the next mountain ridge? I don’t know. People took to the streets before the president put out a word as to the U.S. coming to their aid. Seeing friends and loved ones shot and killed—do they come back the next night because they are certain that the Americans are going to cripple the regime and help them finish off the job? I don’t believe for a minute that the president was playing with the Iranian people; I truly believe that he wants to help them, but like entering the bazaar, things look a lot more complicated up close than from far away. The incredible B-2 strike in July had been planned for years and was a very defined action, well-detailed, and practiced. In the present situation, what do you do that would change the dynamics permanently in favor of the protesters without risking a protracted fight?
The challenge here is that President Trump wants to win. He is not interested in opening a war with Iran in which they shoot back, and then the U.S. has to answer, etc. He wants action that knocks the legs out from under the Shiite government and makes the possibility of new leadership a reality. Just as in Venezuela, where the attack was surgical, the president most likely wants something similar: one shot, job done, losses zero to minimum. Just as the people see their best shot in nearly 50 years to get rid of the mullahs, the mullahs realize that the gig is up unless they crush the protests and hold onto power. Khamenei gave a horrific speech in which he said that “hundreds of thousands” died to set up the Islamic Republic of Iran, so what are thousands more if that’s what it takes to stay in power? The problem for him and his folks is that even if they “win,” there is nothing to go back to. The rial is still worthless, many stores have been burned to the ground, and those not killed or taken prisoner will hate the leadership ever more for the death of their friends and loved ones. Governing a hate-filled public may be a major booby prize should the mullahs hang onto power.
So will the U.S. attack? People here in Israel still believe so and feel that any attack will come soon. The president is trying to thread a very tight needle: make a hit that makes a difference on the ground in favor of the people but does not lead to a shooting war with Iran.
May God give the president and his advisors the insights on how to do this right. Ultimately, his responsibility is to the Constitution and the American people. A new, democratic Iran could be a huge boon to the U.S. and Middle East security. Think of Iranian oil coming online and not going to China, and no more Iranian drones to Russia. Can the U.S. help the millions of Iranians who have taken to the streets to get rid of their hated government? Should the U.S. just sit tight and root for the locals? I don’t know, but if the U.S. does something, may it work spectacularly.