Eating crow that actually tastes good, that I wanted to eat all along, is a weird feeling, but that’s what I’ve been doing a lot of these past few days. People on X with long memories have been helpfully quick to remind me just how sure I was in 2022-2023 and earlier this year that now President-elect Donald Trump had zero shot at winning this cycle.
And boy was I sure, as sure as I’ve ever been about any political prediction in my lifetime. In one of many, many posts that have come back to haunt me, I smugly wrote, “I’m going to go ahead and predict that not only will Donald Trump lose in November, he’ll also get fewer votes than he did in 2020.” I even told people to bookmark the tweet. Oof!
Yep, If I were a betting man and had money to burn, I would have bet it all on Joe Biden or Kamala Harris beating Trump and Democrats easily winning at least the House and plenty of otherwise winnable races in the Senate. (Thankfully I’m not a betting man and I don’t have money to burn!)
Contrary to the accusations of many commenters here over the past couple of years, I never had Trump Derangement Syndrome. I never hated Trump. In fact, I was one of his earliest supporters, had voted for him twice (now thrice) and always said if I could wave a magic wand and put him back in office I would. I did, however, have a severe case of Battered Trump Syndrome. With so much at stake, I just didn’t want us to lose again.
I was pretty arrogant about it too, embarrassingly so. I even labeled MAGA accounts who kept tweeting “Trump will win!” at me during the primaries as quasi ‘cultists’ stuck in 2016 and unable to see the new political reality. My reason, not excuse, is probably a touch of hubris from being so right about Trump in 2015 and Covid in 2020. I caught the correct train on both those critical issues earlier than most on our side, and the ‘fact’ that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ time was NOW seemed just as abundantly clear. Until then, after all, my political instincts had been pretty good.
Even now, I maintain that the reasons for my certainty weren’t entirely crazy. From November 2020 onward, from the infamous morning after the election to countless bumbling, failed attempts to prove fraud (I’m not saying fraud didn’t exist, but they didn’t PROVE enough of it existed to impact the election), to losing two winnable Senate runoff elections in Georgia, to shattered expectations from Trump-picked candidates in the Red Wave that wasn’t in 2022, to special election after special election being called for Democrats, to abysmal favorability ratings and everything in between, it just seemed super obvious that Americans, especially in swing states, would never choose Trump again no matter how awful the Democrat on the other side was (and they’re all awful, right?). Pile on his advanced age and all the felony cases, and it just seemed crazy to let the man anywhere near the top of the ticket again.
DeSantis seemed like a logical successor, and I still believe he could be someday (although I also like JD Vance, a lot). To many of us who fought back so hard against the government’s Covid excesses and developed battle-tested friendships along the way, the Florida governor was and still is a hero who kept his state free despite pressure from both the Trump and Biden administrations. The man governed effectively, turned his once-purple state blood red, fought back against the Covid tyrants, believed in the key tenets of the MAGA agenda, and didn’t have the unfavorables Trump had. He seemed like such a logical choice. The problem with that thinking, of course, was that America wasn’t done with Donald Trump. And in hindsight, that ended up being a good thing.
After the primaries I got back on board the Trump train, even if reluctantly at first. But after the assassination attempt and Trump’s heroic response, my reluctance became a willingness to do everything possible to get him elected. It became crystal clear that, despite his baggage and imperfections, this was the leader we needed in a time like this.
I said the felony cases would make it impossible to carry out an effective campaign, much less remain free and mobile during a crucial season. Instead, he won one improbable court victory after another, dancing through raindrops like a ninja master. I said Trump would lose the election in a landslide. Instead, he won it in a landslide, including the popular vote. I said he would be a drag on Republicans everywhere. Instead, he outperformed them all and ended up dragging several to victories they probably wouldn’t otherwise have won. I said he would betray conservatives. Instead, he stayed (mostly) based as hell through the entire campaign and is showing signs he isn’t going to make the mistakes he made during his first term.
I was wrong, so so so wrong, and I couldn’t be happier or more relieved. I do, however, want to sincerely apologize to all of you who took the time to call me out both here in the comments and on social media. Sure, you could be a bit obnoxious at times, but on my end I can see that I was super condescending. I tend to be that way when people can’t see what I believe to be an obvious fact. It’s one of my weaknesses. On this, however, clearly you understood something I didn’t. But I get it now, crystal clear.
Now, if I could kindly stay out of one of those detention camps the left assures me Trump is going to build, that would be awesome.