We had Round 2 of the Iranian Aerial Attack. Some Thoughts.
The Iranians sent their second round of projectiles at Israel. Whereas the first batch included drones, cruise missiles and some ballistic rockets, this time around it was apparently 181 ballistic missiles. The time from the sands of Persia to the metropolis of Tel Aviv is 12 minutes, 3 minutes shorter than the time we were told it would take Soviet ICBMs to reach American cities. We had a short debate as to whether to stay home and pull down the metal awnings over the windows or go over to the parking building across the street, which is an official “merchav mugan” (protected area). We chose to go to the latter, as we had our young grandson with us. Our son could not reach his wife by phone and started to get nervous. His brother eventually drove over to their apartment, and after the barrage, brought her back to our place.
A day after the bombing, I wondered about my fellow countrymen in America. If Putin or Xi decided to share some of their nuclear technology with you, where would you go in those 15 minutes you would have to save your life? I grew up with those yellow and black fallout signs showing the way to nearby shelters, but today where would you go? Do you have a safe room? Do you have a bunker-like basement? Is there a solid concrete structure close enough to reach in time? All new structures in Israel must include a reinforced safe space. Big stores like IKEA have massive rooms with thick metal doors and emergency exits. Even private apartments built in the past 20 years must have a “mamad”—a safe room with reinforced concrete walls and heavy metal window covers. Our home is around 80 years old and has no such features. Hiding behind the big Samsung refrigerator seems like the best option at this point.
Over at the parking lot, there was an eclectic crowd. Israelis, Americans and others, both young and old were present. The key was being close enough to the entrance to still have internet without being exposed. If a bomb went off and sent shrapnel hurtling into the building, one would not want to get hit and have the building named after him posthumously. The up and down sirens were deafening and signaled that one should immediately take cover. Intermittently, we heard the large booms of interceptors hitting their incoming targets. Further west towards Tel Aviv, some rockets and some debris made contact with ground. In Hod Hasharon, not too far from the coast, 100 houses were damaged. The official tally at this point is two Israelis lightly injured and a Gazan staying in Jericho killed.
One has to wonder what the Iranians are thinking—and not what they are saying. Their air armada must have cost a couple of hundred million dollars courtesy of Obama and Biden. Let’s assume that each rocket runs between two and three million; that’s a lot of dough to kill a Palestinian who thought that he had it made by getting so far from the fighting in Gaza. They can write on X that it was a great success. They showed their traditional cowardice in claiming that they were targeting three army bases and the Mossad offices. That their rockets fell in Jordan and pretty much everywhere else means that targeting has no meaning. They can try to beat a rap at the Hague by pretending to have only targeted military sites. So they fired say a half a billion dollars of their best rockets, did some minor damage and killed one person who is supposed to be on their side. They have to assume that Israel will now attack in full and not just give another demo as it did last time. People here are expecting that Israel will wipe out the Iranian gas/oil production facilities, the nuclear installations, and possibly other targets of opportunity. I obviously have no idea what Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu and his team plan, but their successes in Lebanon and Yemen would suggest that the Iranians should expect total devastation. Israelis want revenge, and it would seem that the US, with its bifurcated and dysfunctional leadership, not only will not get in the way but may help facilitate Israel’s response.
We are living in a new phase of warfare. While there is some level of traditional continuous fighting in Gaza, the bigger attacks are performed discreetly and oftentimes with breaks between volleys. As weapons and counter-weapons cost millions of dollars apiece, they are used more sparingly. An Arrow missile often required to neutralize an incoming Iranian threat also costs a couple million dollars. Victor Davis Hanson recently discussed the implications of the US providing very accurate but very expensive artillery shells to Ukraine: whereas the Russians fire huge numbers of dumb shells, the Ukrainians must make due with fewer of their $7000 rounds. One should note that the US would appear to have lost eleven Reaper drones over Houthi-controlled Yemen. Each costs $32 million. Ukraine and others are moving to much cheaper drones that can perform surveillance and even weapons-delivery. Israel, like most combatants, has a mix of very expensive long-range surveillance drones as well as much cheaper units, some of them designed for suicide missions.
If Israel can perform a knockout punch on Iran like it did with Hezbollah via the beepers, walkie-talkies, and directed attacks on its leadership, then maybe Iran can be brought to the point where its long-suffering population can challenge the mullahs for control. The amazing thing about the destruction of Hamas and Hezbollah and hopefully the future incapacitation of Iran is how they all brought their end upon themselves. Hamas obviously had no obligation to attack Israel on the 7th of October nearly one year ago. Hezbollah had eleven months to bow out of the “we’re supporting Hamas from here in Lebanon” shtick. And finally Iran could have skipped last night’s barrage, though their leaders' egos probably could not let the assassinations of Haniyeh, Nasrallah, and other senior terrorists go unanswered forever. It is my hope that they will receive a blow to their capabilities from which there is no return.
Israel’s ability to immediately detect launches against its citizens, move self-same citizens into protective areas, and use an array of anti-missile technologies seems to be working quite well. It is by no means perfect, and people have been harmed from attacks from Gaza, Yemen and Lebanon. But the Iranians no doubt expected that their razzle-dazzle combination of willing proxies and homemade rockets would bring Israel to its knees. The current understanding is that Hamas received training before the 10/7 attacks in Iran, while all of the terror groups are lavishly funded and supported by the Islamic theocracy. Let us hope that we are approaching the end of nearly fifty years of radical Islamic terror. I never thought I would set foot in Dubai, but I had a great time there earlier this year. I look forward to future travels to Riyadh and….Tehran.