Joe Biden has decided that his political future outweighs Israel’s continued existence. He is setting himself up for an early retirement.
After the 10/7 massacre, there seemed to be agreement on one point in civilized society: Hamas had to go. Hamas had had the opportunity to only attack military targets in Israel and treat Israeli civilians and soldiers according to the accepted rules of war. Instead, they not only killed 1,200 people and wounded over 5,000, they engaged in sadistic barbarism that in some cases goes farther than the Nazis. I have never heard of cases of necrophilia by any German soldier or officer, but several living witnesses said that they saw Hamas men and Palestinian civilians engage in the same during their mass rape and torture of Israeli women. Even those on the left who argued that Hamas and the Palestinians were not one and the same stated clearly that Hamas was bad for the Palestinians. In short, other than leftwing anti-Israeli ideologues, everyone agreed that Hamas was evil and the majority—including President Biden—said that Hamas had to be destroyed.
Fast-forward five months and now the White House appears to be having second thoughts about the destruction of Hamas. According to Israel, the only remaining concentration of Hamas terrorists—four battalions—is in Rafah, in the south of the Gaza Strip. Through brutal and intensive fighting, Israel has killed, wounded and captured the vast majority of Hamas fighters from the north and center of Gaza. Most people would understand that if Israel wants to make Hamas a broken force and allow for a different leadership in the Strip, then Rafah must be cleaned up. Israel has been telegraphing its intention to go into Rafah as it went into Gaza City and Khan Yunis: get civilians out and then level the place to the ground and kill as many terrorists as possible. Rafah is critical, not only because it has so many Hamas operatives, but also because it abuts the Philadelphia Corridor, which is the route by which the endless amount of guns, ammunition, and heavier weapons entered the Strip. Control this corridor and Israel controls everything that can enter Gaza from all four compass directions.
So one would expect that President Biden would be goading Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu to go into Rafah and finish the job. Instead, the White House is sending some very strange signals to Jerusalem. There are talks of “red lines” and then denials of the same. There seems to be ample evidence that Biden and company want to topple Bibi’s government and allow someone they perceive as more dovish (Benny Gantz) to take over. There were comments yesterday that the US might limit weaponry if Israel goes into Rafah or that the US would allow Israel to attack high-value targets above and below ground but nothing else. While the details seem somewhat confusing, the trajectory is not. Joe Biden is taking out his fear of a growing leftwing Democratic base on Bibi and the Israelis.
If the only electoral concern that Biden had was dissatisfied Muslims, then the net effect on Joe Biden’s electability would be negligible. Even in Michigan, where the US has the largest concentration of Arab immigrants and citizens, the official margin of victory for Biden in 2020 was much larger than any potential lost votes from Muslim voters staying home. They definitely will not vote for Trump, who moved the American embassy to Jerusalem and halted immigration from several Muslim countries, as he had promised. So, the worst would be their staying home, something that should be covered by other Democratic demographics.
The problem that Biden and the Democrats have is that it’s not just Muslim voters who call the president “Genocide Joe”. Younger voters vote Democratic by large margins. And those voters tend today to get their news from TikTok and Instagram. They are bombarded daily with stories of Israeli soldiers massacring Palestinians or mass famine in Gaza. None of it is true and Israel is trying harder than any army in history to avoid civilian casualties, but the youngins are buying what they see on social media. So the risk for Biden is not just Muslim voters but rather the very large “progressive” wing of his party that includes young voters and many others. None of them will vote for Trump but they can either stay home or unenthusiastically support the incumbent and not make an effort to get others to vote. Biden is looking down the barrel of a definite electoral defeat to the hated Trump. And so he decided that he needs to act.
Choosing between losing his younger supporters or letting Hamas off of the Israeli hook, he is choosing the latter. He tries to jawbone Israel into not going into Rafah or going in under threat of lost weapons or UN support. He tries to undermine a democratically-elected government whose policies are reflective of the will of the vast majority of Israelis. The leftists here also want Hamas destroyed, so well over 70% support the current policies against Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and ultimately, Iran. Biden thinks that by sidelining Bibi or getting Israel to quit before the final fight, he will save his job. Memo to the president: Bibi will go, but only during elections after the fighting has ended. Also, his threats over Rafah will be ignored and Israel will go in, trying to minimize civilian casualties. If Biden had been a man of principle (stop laughing, please), he would have stuck by Israel’s right to wipe Hamas off of the face of the Earth. His voters are not going to run to Trump and if they are terrified enough of bad orange man winning, they will hold their noses and vote for the oldest man to forget that he is president.
Rafah is a litmus test for both Israel and Joe Biden. For Israel, does the government have the wherewithal to wipe out Hamas after they killed, maimed, raped, tortured, and kidnapped Israeli civilians, young and old. For Joe Biden, the question is whether he has any moral compass left to support Israel and weaken Islamic terror in the world. Hamas’ destruction is in America’s interest if it weakens Iran. Attacking Bibi and demanding no Rafah operation is music to Hamas’ ears.
Post-Script: Abu Ali Express, the best source of what’s going on in Gaza, added by Telegram: The leader of the Democratic majority in the US Senate, Chuck Schumer, called for new elections in Israel: "Netanyahu is an obstacle to peace, his coalition is harming Israel. It cannot hope to succeed as an ostracized country, that operates contrary to the rest of the world."
The word for that is chutzpah.