Donald Trump is going to be the 2024 Republican nominee. It's inevitable because Nikki Haley has nowhere to go. Will she finish second in New Hampshire? For sure. Could she beat Trump there? Maybe, but I wouldn't count on it. You must admit the chances of her pulling off an upset here are better than Iowa, but Haley will lose South Carolina to Trump and get swept in the Super Tuesday contests in March. Ron DeSantis had the common sense to drop out last weekend. Haley should do the same. Everyone knows she has no chance. She might tout the poll showing most Americans don't want a Trump-Biden rematch. The other part is that Republicans don't want her to be the nominee. American politics is awash in walking contradictions—nothing much has changed.
Haley is touting her foreign policy chops, which is fine, but that's not a play to outmaneuver the frontrunner. It adds nothing to the scoresheet. Since I could've voted for either Ron or Trump, I had no dog in this fight. DeSantis made some excellent points on the trail, but it wasn't perfect. Trump is far from perfect, but it is what it is now. When we look back on it, perhaps this was when Trump clinched the nomination without a vote being cast: the FBI raiding Mar-a-Lago.
The intense reaction of federal agents ransacking the home of a former president was unprecedented and disturbing. In 2016, it was illegal immigration and border security that set Trump apart from the rest of the field. This cycle, it's federal agents engaging in a prolonged campaign of harassment spurred by political animus. DeSantis had some momentum, had a treasure chest of cash at the time, and might have been able to make a play for the nomination, but the window turned out to be narrower. Like the Buffalo Bills' AFC championship window with quarterback Josh Allen, it quickly shut, and once Trump maintained a healthy double-digit lead over the rest of these folks, it was over.
So, if all the ten members of the anti-Trump wing of the GOP (the rest have become Democrats) are feeling cranky that they yet again couldn't take down the former president, blame the FBI, which made that all but impossible. Being a target of the DOJ is very powerful stump material. It also happens to be true. Do Democrats want Trump to be renominated? Hell, yes, but the situation on the ground changed. The economy never improved, and Biden's approvals are now in the low 30s. Even Democrats can't shy away from the president's abysmal foundation for reelection. The high inflation, the economy in turmoil, and Joe Biden falling at multiple campaign events is what could kill Biden in 2024. The number of Americans who admit they're poorer and not better off than they were four years ago has also been an election killer for incumbents. Trump being the 2024 nominee isn't enough for Democrats to win, especially if they're facing revolts across the Rust Belt. Muslim voter enclaves in Michigan might stay home due to Biden's support for Israel.
As with any election, while the candidates might not be popular, it will be about who can make the best pitch. Can Biden defend his record without slurring his words and drifting into mind fog? Can Trump remain disciplined enough to sell his 2024 plan without whining about the 2020 election results?
What about the trials? That's the wild card. Since most won't be handled in a speedy trial, it could make for political hay for both sides. Hunter Biden's tax evasion trial is set to begin in June.
As for Trump, this won't be a cakewalk either due to the legal baggage.
The FBI raid eventually led to his indictment for mishandling classified materials from Special Counsel Jack Smith, which, despite being the most robust case against Trump, is not viewed as a legitimate probe into the former president. Still, Trump's actions with this case didn't do him any favors, as it's riddled with self-inflicted wounds, actions that you knew would land him in hot water with an army of anti-Trump lawyers subsidized by an unlimited investigatory budget.
Yes, there have been too many hoaxes and all-around legal malarkey when it comes to Trump, and rightfully so. The Alvin Bragg porn payments case in Manhattan is one of the most egregious examples of rogue prosecuting attorneys going outside ordinary law interpretations to ensnare Trump. The real estate fraud case is another laughable exercise, which "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary chopped apart in a few minutes. What Trump did regarding valuation and loan negotiation is what every real estate broker does:
Mr. Wonderful to CNN:
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) January 12, 2024
“Forget about Trump. EVERY single real estate developer everywhere on EARTH does this!”
“This doesn’t even make SENSE!” pic.twitter.com/zgnW5vpIJ3
And, alas, that doesn't mean these indictments go away. Procedures must be followed, and that costs money. If anything, I'm more annoyed that a lot of Trump's fundraising will have to go to paying off lawyers.
Even the RICO case against Trump in Georgia is facing serious credibility and ethical issues concerning the prosecution, whose lead attorney, Nathan Wade, might be the lover of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who took lavish vacations paid for with county cash that were given to Wade's law firm. Put it this way, the allegations are serious enough for a hearing regarding whether Wade can even remain on the team in February. Again, while embarrassing for the prosecution, the trial and case against Trump hasn't been dismissed.
Was Trump inevitable? It looks like it. Are many worried, anxious, and exhausted due to Trump's persona and legal drama? Sure—but it's all there is now. Would it ever have come to this without the FBI knocking down the doors of Mar-a-Lago? Since we're at the end, I'll say yes. The corrupt DOJ gave the greatest in-kind contribution, but no doubt Trump would have shot through the roof, sans raid, on the debate stage. Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and whoever else would have been turned into political sashimi by Trump, as he did in 2016. Was it cowardice to sit out the debates? His absence did show voters the appalling lack of depth in this crop that withered quickly. But who cares now; it worked since Trump's going to be the 2024 nominee.
It's time to unite. We can read the post-mortems later.