The upcoming Republican debate on August 23 will ostensibly be interesting. I say “ostensibly” because enough people might not see it to matter much because of the blind greed of Fox News and the incredible stupidity of Ronna McDaniel and the Republican Party “leadership.” But regardless, the debate will happen, and it is more crucial to Ron DeSantis—right now—than to any other candidate.
As I’ve announced many times here, I am a trained historian. That leads me to be very cautious about having “tunnel vision” regarding historical events. They absolutely must be put in context, something very few people do. Donald Trump does not intend to take part in the debate. I think that is kind of crass of him, but I understand why he is doing it. He wants to portray himself as having already won the nomination; thus, debating losers would be pointless. His followers in the Republican Party are currently dominating and trying to create an illusion that Trump will inevitably be the party’s nominee for President. Current polls point in that direction. Psychology. “It’s a done deal; DeSantis is finished, none of the other candidates have a prayer, get on the Trump bandwagon.” It’s currently a powerful movement.
As a historian, I have one word for that: poppycock.
Trump may indeed be the eventual nominee. That is certainly a possibility. But it isn’t inevitable. Several months will pass before one vote is taken. Lots of things can happen in several months. “It ain’t over till it’s over,” Yogi said with his usual sublime wisdom.
But the here and now is the here and now, and DeSantis can’t sit on his hands and just hope things get better over time. He must act decisively, act wisely, and show the people of the Republican Party that he is genuinely the best candidate. The debate could at least give him a boost at doing that. A good performance won’t win him the nomination; a lousy performance could cost him dearly. First impressions and all that. And this will indeed be the first look many people will really get at Ron DeSantis.
Well, at least the few Fox News and the Stupid Party will let you see it. I have no idea how to watch it here in Thailand. I’m not going to spend money to watch it; I guarantee that. Maybe I can figure something out.
But regardless, a good showing helps DeSantis, and a bad one harms him. That wasn’t a difficult conclusion to reach. If any of the other candidates want to make a splash, they must have a superior showing. That probably won’t happen.
My suspicion is that Mr. DeSantis will do well in the debate, probably showing himself to be better than the others on the stage. Ron DeSantis didn’t get to be the best governor in America with smoke and mirrors and by being dumb and ineffectual. He is where he is because of the kind of leader he is. Whether that will be enough to overtake Trump remains to be seen. But I don’t think Ron DeSantis is going anywhere, and Mr. Trump would be wise not to take him lightly.
Donald Trump has an incredibly loyal following in the Republican Party, some rabidly so. He has also created a vast mass of people in the party who dislike him. RINOs and Never Trumpers. But there also exists this not-insubstantial coterie of good, solid conservatives who greatly fear that Donald Trump, for all his good ideas and policies, has simply, by his own character and actions, ruined any chance he has of becoming President next year. They don’t think he can win. And they believe, for the sake of the United States, that the Republican Party must at least win the White House next year, and hopefully the House and Senate. These people will support and vote for Trump if he is the nominee, but they worry he can’t, and won’t, win a general election again. They may be wrong; we are all wrong sometimes. But that is what they think, and they are reliable, base conservative Republicans, and it is tasteless, at best, for the “Only Trumpers” to be so belligerent against them. I have said several times in columns that I am waiting to see who the best, most electable candidate might be for the Republican Party, which I think, far and away, is the wisest position. That has gotten me nothing but vituperative, odious comments from “Only Trumpers.” Frankly, such doesn’t help their candidate at all.
What are the Democrats doing? The indictments against Trump are utterly ridiculous, of course, purely political, and there are two schools of thought as to why the Dems are doing it. One, they are really trying to destroy Trump NOW because they don’t want him to be the nominee. They think he has the best chance, among any Republican, to win the Presidency next year, so they are trying to remove him before he receives the nomination. That is a defensible position.
A second school of thought holds that the Democrats WANT Trump to be nominated because they believe, like many Republicans, that he has absolutely no chance to win the Presidency again. A Trump nomination ensures four more years of Biden or whatever left-wing kook the Democrats select. So, the Dems are thinking that all these indictments will rally the Republican Party base behind Trump to ensure his nomination. Reverse psychology. At present, that strategy seems to be working.
But I’m a historian. Right now is not the future. We don’t know what will happen next year. The August 23rd debate is, in a way, the official start of the campaign. But many people still won’t be looking. Let’s see if non-attendance hurts Mr. Trump and what kind of performance Mr. DeSantis has. Then we can go from there. Into the future.
Many more articles, as well as audio and video podcasts, on my substack: mklewis929.substack.com. Free signup. Read my western novels, Whitewater , River Bend, Return to River Bend, and Allie’s Dilemma all available on Amazon. You can follow me on Twitter: @thailandmkl. And rumble: lewandcou