The conventional wisdom in Washington, DC, these days is that a Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade will energize the Democrat base and pro-choice independents to such a fever pitch that they will reverse the enormous advantage Republicans seem to enjoy heading into this November's midterm elections.
This conventional wisdom (the same conventional wisdom that assured all of us that Hillary Clinton would be elected president, that Trump had colluded with the Russians, and that Tom Brady couldn't win without Bill Belichick) recommends that Republicans distance themselves from the abortion issue and moderate their positions so as not to frighten off suburban moms who might be anxious over the prospect of states managing abortion laws outside of the 50-year-old Supreme Court edict.
Forgive my skepticism of the professional political pundits who continue to cash hefty checks even though they routinely get it wrong. Still, I'd humbly suggest that conventional wisdom is entirely out of touch with the American voter.
Now, the typical response to our elite pundit class is to show a poll that backs up your contention, and I could certainly do that with regard to the Roe issue. First, let's explore a fake analysis of a host of recent polls that appear to show the majority of Americans want Roe to stand as the law of the land.
So, of course, that's the headline you'll see in the corporate, propaganda legacy media everywhere. "Poll: Two-thirds say don't overturn Roe; the court leak is firing up Democratic voters," screams NPR today. Sure, Jan.
But, if you read further into these polls, you'll see that it appears those same Americans who don't want Roe touched also have little understanding of what Roe does.
Let's explore the Monmouth poll linked above. In that poll, 57% claim Roe should remain, but in the same poll, only 44% want Congress to "pass a law allowing abortions nationwide" if Roe is overturned. Even more confusing, a majority of respondents in the same poll that wants Roe to remain also claim to want Congress to either leave abortion law to the states (43%) or ban abortion nationwide (9%).
That's 52% of Americans who want a federal abortion ban or want states to determine abortion law on their own... neither scenario would be possible if Roe were to remain.
Of course, it's pretty rich to see abortion enthusiasts in the media and the Democratic Party referencing public opinion polls to support their radical Roe agenda considering the fact that Roe took this important issue completely out of the hands of the public in the first place. By relying on the dodgy rationale behind the 1972 decision, Margaret Sanger's acolytes were more than happy to thumb their noses at public opinion and kill babies by judicial fiat.
As usual, these polls merely reflect the outcome generated by the question that is asked. If Americans are asked if Roe v. Wade should be overturned, many might say "no" without really knowing exactly what Roe does other than the reductionist idea that it "keeps abortion legal."
When asked a series of very specific questions regarding how and when legal abortions should be allowed, and how and when they should be criminalized, the American people are much more nuanced.
A recent Fox News poll shows that over half of Americans would outlaw abortion after 15 weeks. This is precisely what the Mississippi restriction in the pending Dobbs abortion ruling would establish and what the justices appear to support if the recently leaked draft opinion in Dobbs is to hold up.
In other words, if you're relying on polls to establish your political strategy when it comes to abortion, you're going to have a problem. A majority want Roe upheld while a majority want states to decide on their own, and a majority want abortion outlawed after 15 weeks. It's logically incoherent to hold all of those positions at the same time, and yet, here we are.
How the abortion issue might affect this November's elections is not so cut and dry after all. If it were a no-brainer, Democrats would have been able to pass their deceptively titled Women's Health Protection Act with ease, and yet, they couldn't even get their own party's senators to support it unanimously.
The good news for abortion opponents is that so far, Republicans don't seem to be buying into this bogus conventional wisdom.
Hopefully, Republicans will realize quickly that they don't have to say much about this issue, just sit back and let the ghoulish abortion enthusiasts declare their extremist positions. That's exactly what happened in the House yesterday, and the results could help flip even more seats to the GOP.
Just watch:
REP. JOHNSON: "What is the principal distinction between the human being that is 2-years-old, or 9-months-old, or 1-week-old, or an hour-old and one that is 8 inches further up the birth canal?"
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) May 18, 2022
ARRAMBIDE: "I trust people to determine what to do with their own bodies—full stop." pic.twitter.com/yEvnjwikSe
That's Aimee Arrambide, the executive director of the abortion advocacy group Avow Texas, and let me just say on behalf of all Republicans: We want to see more of Ms. Arrambie between now and election day.
The polls may be ambiguous about where Americans stand on Roe, but I think it's a pretty safe bet that they are repulsed by the latest Democrat dogma that holds to the position that a woman should be able to kill her child while in the process of delivering her.
It's my firm belief that this issue will, in fact, help Republicans this November, not hurt them... but let's just say that I'm wrong. Let's say that the Supreme Court overturns Roe, and there is an electoral uproar this November, helping Democrats and punishing Republicans for daring to want to protect unborn babies from the violence of abortion.
Let's say that Roe gets overturned, and Republicans stay in the minority in the House and Senate.
So what? I mean... seriously, so what?
For 50 years, Republicans have been voting and protesting and donating and advocating and debating and door-knocking and marching and praying for Roe to be cast into the ash-heap of history where it belongs. And now it's about to finally become a reality.
If foregoing the historic pleasure of witnessing Kevin McCarthy with the Speaker's Gavel in his hand is the trade-off for this generational moment, I think we'll take that deal, wouldn't we?
No, overturning Roe won't hurt Republicans. But, even if it does, so what?