It was a runaway market on Monday with monster gains on the first day of trading for the month. The train has left the station; and now, professional investors need to climb onboard, even though they make big money for mediocrity anyway.
NYSE
- Advancers: 2,262 – Decliners: 715
- New Highs: 178 - New Lows: 12
- Up Volume: 2.7 billion - Down Volume: 749.9 million
NASDAQ
- Advancers: 2,098 – Decliners: 1,000
- New Highs: 104 - New Lows: 30
- Up Volume: 1.6 billion - Down Volume: 570.0 million
U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance
The market was higher, but by no means were gains secure until the release of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing data. The 55.3 reading was up from January and better than expected. Key Components:
- New Orders: 57.4 +1.9
- Production: 55.8 +1.0
- Employment: 57.5 +5.2
The results added octane to the rally, which in turn, triggered buy programs and lots of fence-sitters.
ISM Manufacturing, February 2019
Manufacturing’s biggest obstacle is workers, as the unemployment number nears an all-time low.
Portfolio Approach
We had a huge gain in a technology position that was too delicious to not take, but we think investors should still have a 2 weighting. We also added a new industrial position, which means we are at minimal cash in the model portfolio. If you have any questions, contact your account representative or email research@wstreet.com. Click here to get started on Hotline today.
Communication Services 1 | Consumer Discretionary 4 | Consumer Staples 1 |
Energy 1 | Financials 1 | Healthcare 2 |
Industrial 4 | Materials 3 | Real Estate 0 |
Technology 2 | Utilities 0 | Cash 1 |
Today’s Session
We begin the session with higher estimates for first quarter growth after MacroMavens adjusted its estimate to 1.7% from 1.3%, JP Chase 2.0% from 1.5% and the Atlanta Fed to 2.1% from 1.7%.
The strong rebound in manufacturing and construction spending not only moved the stock market and GDP estimates higher, but the ten-year yield rose 9.6 basis points to 2.5%.
The inversion with the three-month yield, which lasted five sessions, is over. Yet, many wonder if it lasted long enough to suggest a recession in the next 52-weeks.
Gold is at a three-week low as well, so macro anxiety continues to improve, and confidence is building. The dark clouds that held back the economy in the fourth quarter have passed, and those remaining question marks, including a potential U.S. China trade deal, are going to happen.