Forecasts for the Weeks of January 26 and February 2

Peter Morici
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Posted: Jan 26, 2015 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
ForecastForecastPrior ObservationConsensus
Week of January 26
January 26
PMI Services Flash Index53.653.653.8
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index3.04.14.0
January 27
Durable Goods Orders - December0.8%-0.70.7
S&P Case/Shiller Index - November
Twenty City M/M-0.2%-0.1%-0.2
Twenty City M/M - SA0.70.80.6
Twenty City Y/Y4.34.54.3
New Home Sales449K438452
Consumer Confidence96.092.696.0
Richmond Fed Index4.575.5
January 28
FMOC0.125%0.1250.125
January 29
Initial Unemployment Claims302K307300
Pending Home Sales - December 105.2104.8105.3
January 30
GDP - Q4 (a)3.3%5.03.2
GDP Implicit Price Deflator1.01.41.0
Employment Cost Index - Q40.4%0.70.5
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y2.22.2
Chicago PMI - January57.958.357.7
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)98.298.298.2
Week of February 2
February 2
Personal Income - December0.3%0.40.3
Personal Spending-0.10.6-0.2
PMI Manufacturing Index - January53.753.7
ISM (Mfg) - January55.555.555.5
ISM Prices40.038.540.0
Construction Spending - December0.6%-0.3
February 3
Factory Orders - December0.1%-0.7
Durable Goods Orders0.8-0.9
Nondurable Goods Orders -0.5-0.5
Auto Sales* - January17.00M16.9216.90
Car Sales8.158.15
Truck Sales8.858.77
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
February 4
ADP Employment Survey - January220K241.0218
PMI Services Index - January57.4
ISM Services - January56.556.2
ISM Prices49.349.5
ISM Business Activity57.657.2
February 5
International Trade - December-$40.0B-39.0-39.0
Productivity - Q4 (p)0.9%2.30.8
Unit Labor Costs1.6-1.01.1
February 6
Nonfarm Payrolls - January230K252230
Private220240220
Manufacturing101715.0
Unemployment5.6%5.65.6
Average Workweek34.6Hr34.615.9
Average Hourly Earnings0.3%-0.20.3
Consumer Credit - December$15.0B14.115.0
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.