| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus |
| Week of January 26 | |||
| January 26 | |||
| PMI Services Flash Index | 53.6 | 53.6 | 53.8 |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| January 27 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - December | 0.8% | -0.7 | 0.7 |
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - November | |||
| Twenty City M/M | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.2 |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| New Home Sales | 449K | 438 | 452 |
| Consumer Confidence | 96.0 | 92.6 | 96.0 |
| Richmond Fed Index | 4.5 | 7 | 5.5 |
| January 28 | |||
| FMOC | 0.125% | 0.125 | 0.125 |
| January 29 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 302K | 307 | 300 |
| Pending Home Sales - December | 105.2 | 104.8 | 105.3 |
| January 30 | |||
| GDP - Q4 (a) | 3.3% | 5.0 | 3.2 |
| GDP Implicit Price Deflator | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Employment Cost Index - Q4 | 0.4% | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
| Chicago PMI - January | 57.9 | 58.3 | 57.7 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f) | 98.2 | 98.2 | 98.2 |
| Week of February 2 | |||
| February 2 | |||
| Personal Income - December | 0.3% | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Personal Spending | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| PMI Manufacturing Index - January | 53.7 | 53.7 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - January | 55.5 | 55.5 | 55.5 |
| ISM Prices | 40.0 | 38.5 | 40.0 |
| Construction Spending - December | 0.6% | -0.3 | |
| February 3 | |||
| Factory Orders - December | 0.1% | -0.7 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 0.8 | -0.9 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
| Auto Sales* - January | 17.00M | 16.92 | 16.90 |
| Car Sales | 8.15 | 8.15 | |
| Truck Sales | 8.85 | 8.77 | |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| February 4 | |||
| ADP Employment Survey - January | 220K | 241.0 | 218 |
| PMI Services Index - January | 57.4 | ||
| ISM Services - January | 56.5 | 56.2 | |
| ISM Prices | 49.3 | 49.5 | |
| ISM Business Activity | 57.6 | 57.2 | |
| February 5 | |||
| International Trade - December | -$40.0B | -39.0 | -39.0 |
| Productivity - Q4 (p) | 0.9% | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 1.6 | -1.0 | 1.1 |
| February 6 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - January | 230K | 252 | 230 |
| Private | 220 | 240 | 220 |
| Manufacturing | 10 | 17 | 15.0 |
| Unemployment | 5.6% | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Average Workweek | 34.6Hr | 34.6 | 15.9 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Consumer Credit - December | $15.0B | 14.1 | 15.0 |
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. | |||
Forecasts for the Weeks of January 26 and February 2
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