The final weeks of this election cycle feel like the 50/50 scene from War Dogs: two arms dealers racing into Baghdad to deliver handguns to the military before their contract is terminated for cause, an industry death sentence. Their driver says the trip is “fifty-fifty” for safety, which is why they’re driving through the night. Is it safer? The answer is the same. I feel the same way about this election cycle and the projected blue wave that might or might not happen. Last weekend was another episode of political schizophrenia.
Over the weekend, projections suggested the Democrats could net 230-plus House seats. That report held for about 12 hours until Politico reported that new Midwest polls cast doubt on a blue wave: the polls are tightening. The GOP vote has been underestimated for at least a generation, even more so during the Trump era. If they’re off by two to three points, as they have been in the past decade, the GOP retains control of Congress.
The media sees it too, which is why they’re on hyperdrive, trying to hedge their bets and avoid looking like idiots after a summer of blue tsunami propaganda fueled by fake polls. And by fake, I don’t mean because I disagree with them; they were legitimately bogus. From the Wisconsin Democrat primary to the latest fiasco with Wedgewood, they all offered the same excuse: they were conducting a social experiment.
The models are suspect. The polling is suspect. Frank Luntz, who admitted he got 2016 wrong, said his colleagues aren’t asking the right question to gauge the climate. He’s skeptical, and rightly so, because GOP voters are reluctant to respond to polls, leading to an oversampling of college-educated woke whites who are insane. That could be made explicit if Mike Rogers beats Abdul El-Sayed, who is the rich white leftist’s idol. For black and Jewish voters, he’s snake oil and supremely unlikable. We saw that in the primary, and if Rogers is getting a horde of Jewish Democrats from the Detroit suburbs, as reported, plus 33 percent of black voter support, El-Sayed could be cooked. It’s not much either. Only about five percent of Haley Stevens and her supporters would need to defect to seal the deal, possibly. Stevens lost to El-Sayed by a razor-thin margin in the primary.
We’ll see. The chances of a disastrous night or a triumphant one are about 50/50.
Editor's Note: Do you enjoy Townhall's conservative reporting that takes on the radical Left and woke media? Support our work so that we can continue to bring you the truth.
Join Townhall VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
