Will China Dominate the 21st Century?

Posted: Apr 12, 2014 12:01 AM
Will China Dominate the 21st Century?

“Just as England led the world in the 19th century, and America in the 20th century, so China will dominate the world in the 21st century.” — Jim Rogers

For the past two weeks, I have been touring the great Asian countries of Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Japan as part of the FreedomFest Asian “Cruise to Profits.” At the Raffles Hotel in Singapore, Jim Rogers predicted that China would lead the world in the new century and surpass America as the world’s greatest superpower.

While in Hong Kong, I visited the Swinson English Bookstore, which was filled with books about the future of China. A few titles exposed the evils of Mao Tse-Tung and the post-Mao era of capitalism under the new communist rulers. I gradually have witnessed how this giant country has grown from an agrarian poverty-stricken society to the new economic tiger, with economic growth rates exceeding 8% a year since 1980. (I’ve been to China about a half-dozen times.)

In 1997, China took back Hong Kong from the British. Many analysts wondered what would happen to Hong Kong under Chinese communism. The answer is clear: Hong Kong took over China, not the other way around.

Last year at the Milken conference, one speaker suggested that the State Capitalism model of China was superior to the Market Capitalism of the West. Niall Fergeson had a shocking response: During the past 30 years, China has boomed because it reduced government control of the economy from 80% to 20%, while the West has suffered because it has increased control of the economy from 20% to 40% or higher. Good answer!

During lunch at Victoria Peak, overlooking Hong Kong Island, Richard Wong, professor of economics at the University of Hong Kong, told me that he doubted that China would be the dominant power of the 21st century for one simple reason: An all-powerful state has been the tradition in China since way before Mao came along. For at least 2,000 years, the Chinese people have depended on a centrally planned economy, while the West has a tradition of decentralized power in private markets. The entrepreneurial Chinese will move to the West, he predicted, rather than try to survive under Beijing. In short, China will be a great imitator but not a great creator. The West still wins, according to Wong.

Professor Wong had many great things to say about China. I’ve invited him to speak at FreedomFest.

You Blew It! China’s One-Child Policy Destroys Its Culture

By Mark Skousen

Editor, Forecasts & Strategies

“In the matter of our attitude toward age, the difference is absolute, and the East and the West take absolutely opposite points of view.” — Lin Yutang, “The Importance of Living” (1937)

While in Taiwan, a group of us on the FreedomFest Asian cruise visited the home of Lin Yutang, the great libertarian Chinese philosopher. Read my essay on Lin Yutang. It is No. 1 on my list of Top 10 articles on my personal Website, www.mskousen.com.

Lin says that the one big difference between Chinese and American culture was in their attitude toward age. In China, grandparents and the aged are venerated, and the young often ask their elders, “what is your glorious age?” But in America, youth is celebrated, and every effort is made to look younger. “You don’t look a year over 30,” an American might say to a 50-year-old.

In China, according to Lin Yutang, “a natural man loves his children, but a cultured man loves his parents.”

I mentioned this old Chinese tradition of venerating the elders to Professor Richard Wong of the University of Hong Kong, and he said sadly that the old Chinese tradition of respecting experience no longer exists. As a result of the one-child policy there, there are four grandparents doting on one grandchild. The large Chinese family has been destroyed. Under the one-child policy, there are no brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, aunts or uncles. It is a great tragedy. Now youth is celebrated just as it is the West. It is all about young people. If China doesn’t reverse its one-child policy soon, all will be lost.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter from last week about what investment expert Jim Rogers said during my Asian tour.