I don't currently pay much attention to polls, except to note what they are reporting. I don't question their accuracy (well, yes, I do, in many cases), I just question their relevance. The vast majority of Americans are just trying to survive and make sense in their own lives of the disastrous onslaught against them called the 'Biden administration.' Who the next President will be is not a question which will, at present, pay the bills, keep their children from being savaged by sex-craved perverts, or put food on the table. I truly wonder how many people in America haven't even heard of Ron DeSantis (or George Washington) yet, or who might think Vivek Rawaswamy is some kind of Tibetan guru. Politics don't mean much, at present, to anyone but political junkies, and most people have a life. Joe Biden is forcing them to. Current polls are meaningless.
Well, not totally meaningless. They tell us what people—who are asked—currently think, but that doesn’t tell us anything about what they will think in six months or in November, 2024. That is, they tell us what people—who are asked—think right now, provided they are telling the truth. I suspect most people are, but it’s hard to know for sure.
So, current polls cannot predict what will happen 15 months from now. What they can do, and what they are being used for, is to try to psychologically manipulate the populace—at least those who might be paying attention to them. Polls are often used this way, and that is a very dissembling thing to do. In 2016, all the polls said Hillary Clinton was going to slaughter Donald Trump, so, Leftist pundits urged everyone to get on the bandwagon and vote for our next President, Hillary. Didn’t quite work out that way.
But still, polls can be, and are, used like that, and, ironically, it is now Mr. Trump who is surreptitiously doing so. The Republicans will have their first primary debate in less than a month (August 23), and, at this writing, seven candidates meet the criterion for participation. Trump is obviously one of them, but has not yet declared (to my knowledge) his intention of joining the fray. His approach seems to be, “Look, folks, all the polls show this race is over. I’m going to be the nominee. Everybody knows that, so all this debating and such is a waste of time. The other candidates should concede and get behind me so we can unify the party and defeat the Democrats next year.” There appear to be many Republicans (and Democrats who are also pushing this line in hopes of a Trump candidacy) who have accepted this conclusion. It has many defenders.
And it may be true. Maybe Trump’s lead (given polls are believable) is insurmountable. Mr. Trump thus doesn’t feel compelled to “lower” himself to debate and give credibility to the idea that, no, the campaign is NOT over and he HASN’T won yet. Psychology at work here in the Trump camp. It’s over, get on board.
Of course, not everybody agrees with Trump’s assessment of the situation, and there is going to be a debate August 23, whether he participates or not. He needs to think this through a bit. Not attending the debate could hurt him, as people will, once again, point to his arrogance and narcissism, and that he doesn’t respect Republican voters enough to honor the process. That will turn some people off. But participating could also hurt him, because one of the other candidates might show him/herself to be better and wiser than Trump and distinctly cut into his lead, thus demonstrating that, no, the race is not finished by any means.
Either way, Trump needs to be there. If he is the superior candidate, that will come to light on the debate stage. He should respect the system. The American people have a right to see all the candidates and choose the one they think is superior. The nomination is not Mr. Trump’s by default, even though he seems to think it is. That egotism offends countless people.
The other candidate who has the most to gain, or lose, in the first debate is Ron DeSantis. For whatever reasons, his polls numbers have not been very high, and he hasn’t cut into Trump’s lead much, if at all. A strong debate performance (Trump attending or not) would certainly catapult DeSantis into a much stronger position. I suspect Trump fears that DeSantis might show himself superior and that is one reason Trump doesn’t want to be there. But, head-to-head with DeSantis could help Trump, too, if HE proves himself better. Further, if DeSantis does poorly in the debate, then his candidacy might be finished and the race might indeed be over with Trump victorious. DeSantis MUST have a good debate, MUST show himself presidential. Trump might be avoiding the debate to see if that happens, to determine if he has a true challenger or not.
Why has DeSantis (seemingly) done so poorly thus far? Is it possible that he is just a very, very good governor, but has no real ability to rise higher than that? Not everybody is presidential timber. Or, it is also possible that Trump (and the Democratic media) are so fearful of him that they are doing everything they can to ensure he doesn’t win the nomination. Democrats, rightly or wrongly, want Trump as the Republican nominee, not DeSantis. Only time will tell if DeSantis can overcome his lethargic beginning.
We want Trump at the debate to prove if he is indeed the best candidate. DeSantis needs to demonstrate his presidential skills. The other candidates only have prayer and hope. Polls should be viewed with a jaundiced eye. Americans must be aroused to what Joe Biden and the Democrats really are. Let the campaign truly begin!
Follow me on Twitter (X?): @thailandmkl. You can read more articles, as well as audio and video podcasts, on my substack: mklewis929.substack.com. Free signup. Don’t forget my western novels, Whitewater , River Bend, Return to River Bend, and Allie’s Dilemma, all available on Amazon. And check rumble: lewandcou
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