Sometimes you need to look at the forest. Sometimes you need to look at the trees. Since I am in Thailand, I can’t really study the American political “trees” too closely. I have only a “forest-eye” view. But, there are advantages—and disadvantages—to that. Regardless, I’m going to make some predictions of what will happen on November 8. If I get them all wrong, I can blame my location. I hope I AM wrong about some of them.
I’m not going to bother with the easy ones; that’s cheating. (For example, DeSantis and Rubio will win in Florida. No brainer.) I will give myself a challenge and prognosticate about the tough ones. Here goes…
1. Herschel Walker wins in Georgia. He has run a good campaign, is popular in the state, and obviously the Democrats are panicked about this one because of their efforts to destroy him. He’ll pull through. And Kemp beats Abrams in the governor’s race. That one’s not hard.
2. Kari Lake wins the governorship in Arizona. She’s an outstanding campaigner and has made her freak opponent look like a…freak. Kari wins this on the strength of a strong personality, a cowardly opponent, and a lot of common-sense policies.
3. But Blake Masters loses. Sadly, he doesn’t appear (from Thailand) to be the campaigner Kari is. He lacks her personal appeal, nor is he as well-known as she is (her previous TV experience helps her, too). He’s new to the political scene, and the polls have consistently had him trailing. And there are too many Californians in Arizona. I sincerely hope I am wrong on this one, but I fear the worst. Blake in the Senate would be wonderful. If he does lose, some of the blame will have to be laid at the feet of Mitch McConnell who has done little to nothing to help him.
4. And Mitch wants Lisa Murkowski back from Alaska, so she’ll probably win. Kelly Tshibaka would be far superior, but she’s a Trump protégé and McConnell hates those. A RINO is better than a Democrat, but not by much. Traitors don’t inspire me. We could have this one if it weren’t for McConnell and the Republican Establishment, which is still way too strong in D.C.
5. Lee Zeldin loses in New York. Regardless of how incompetent Kathy Hochul is, this IS New York. It IS a Democratic citadel. Zeldin has done about all that he can to expose Hochul, but Democrats are Democrats and there are too many of them in New York. Yet, I don’t think Ron DeSantis would have gone to New York to campaign for Zeldin if he had thought this was a lost cause. So, there is reason for optimism and hope here. This might also give some insight into how DeSantis is viewed in a liberal bastion. But, New York, New York…
6. J.D. Vance wins in Ohio. Ohio tends to be a Republican state. J.D. isn’t as well-known as Tim Ryan, but he’s changing that. He’s running a good campaign and Ryan is making some stupid statements that will hurt him. If J.D. remains calm and intelligent, he will pull this one out.
7. The good doctor wins in Pennsylvania. Mehmet Oz is not the best candidate the Republicans are running this year. He kinda…meh, pardon the pun (but, he may be better than I can see from Thailand). If the Democrats had run even a semi-competent candidate, Oz would be toast. But Fetterman’s health especially, and his extreme positions on crime, etc., seem to give Dr. Oz the advantage. Pennsylvania tends to lean Democrat, but not totally. This is a tough one to call, neither candidate is inspiring. But I think Dr. Oz becomes the lesser of two evils for the people of the Keystone state.
8. No joy in Washington state. The Republicans have some good candidates in Washington, especially Joe Kent, and I sure hope he wins. But Washington and Oregon are both California, Jr. Too hard for Republicans there. The Democratic monolith in the state will give them the victories in the key races.
9. This is interesting: Monday, Donald Trump endorsed Gen. Don Bolduc in New Hampshire. Was that the kiss of death or will it put Bolduc over the top? My money is still on Maggie Hassan here. We can watch this one closely to see if the Trump endorsement helps produce victory for Republicans. This might be significant so close to the election.
10. The Republicans will take the House. I predict a gain of 20-30 seats. Given the condition of the country, it should be more. But there are an increasing number of Democrats out there who hate America. They will probably be able to limit the damage done to their party. Nobody should vote for a Democrat, but people do, in huge numbers, and that must be accepted.
11. Republicans, despite Mitch’s efforts, will gain control of the Senate. 51 Republicans, come January. I can live with that. Maybe we can pick up a few more in 2024, but 51, maybe 52, is probably the best we can hope for this year, since the Republicans are having to defend seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio. Those would be “holds”, not “pick-ups.” The only pick-up will be Georgia, though we can hope for Arizona and New Hampshire. Washington is too far-fetched.
I do know the Democrats are in severe panic-mode. They are sending Obama out everywhere and keeping Biden at home. I really doubt Obama is a game-changer, though. He won’t sway Independents.
Those are my best guesses from afar. Let’s hope, in some cases, my “afar” has given me warped vision. I’ll be happy to eat some Arizona and New York crow.
What are your predictions?
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