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OPINION

What Will We Learn About 2022 Midterms from Tuesday's Recall?

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.
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AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

Americans are fed up. The on again, off again shutdowns and stricter rules in some of the more liberal areas of the country has in no small way added to the already ongoing exodus out of states like California, New York and New Jersey.

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Governors like embattled Gavin Newsom of California, who faces the political battle of a lifetime on Tuesday, Phil Murphy of NJ, who is the incumbent in one of 2021’s off-year gubernatorial races and disgraced former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, are all prominently cited as a major reason for some of their respective states’ highest earners to run as fast as they can to greener pastures, favorable tax climates, and more relaxed COVID policies in states like Florida, Texas and Tennessee.

The optics from the still ongoing Afghanistan debacle will also weigh heavily in the minds of voters going to the polls with the job of deciding Newsom’s fate. One of Larry Elder’s most ardent supporters and a man who is no stranger to followers of conservative politics, guerilla street artist Sabo, said of Biden’s surrender to the Taliban, “It's nice to know the Democrats are doing all they can to disarm law abiding Patriots while at the same time arming Muslim terrorists to the teeth. It probably won’t be long before Al-Qaida starts producing beheading videos.”

But even with Afghanistan still a prominent matter just days after the 20th anniversary of 9/11, the biggest issue that will determine whether California elects a new governor boils down to the handling of only one key issue – COVID.

California’s various shutdowns that began in March of last year have been wildly unpopular, especially as the optics of Newsom running off to his personal sanctuary in the State of Montana, where the governor wined and dined free of mask mandates and social distancing, was one of the major reasons that this latest recall in California has made it to Tuesday’s moment of truth.

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And the truth in America is currently very clear. According to polling conducted this weekend regarding President Biden’s recently announced employer vaccine mandate by Trafalgar/Convention of States, 58.6 percent of voters do not believe Biden has the constitutional authority to require businesses to mandate vaccines for employees. An overwhelming majority of 83.5 percent of Republicans and 68.2 percent of Independents contributed to that majority, while only 27 percent of Democrats agreed.

Additionally, a large majority of independents, 62.3 percent, support the Republican governors who are opposing the federal government mandates. This is the key demographic that actually has the power to swing next year’s midterm, and as unlikely as it may seem now, Tuesday’s recall election.

It also seems that many Americans are waking up to the idea that setting these kinds of precedents present a danger to freedom of choice, as a 55.5 percent majority believe the national vaccine mandate sets a precedent for future presidents. Almost 80 percent of Republicans, 58 percent of Independents, and 30.4 percent of Democrats agreed on that point.

Although it seems that recall measures are commonly introduced in several states, it is actually rare for them to get to this point. This means that regardless of what the media may say about the possibility of an increasingly popular candidate like Larry Elder’s chances of winning, the fact that such a pronounced movement exists against Newsom should give conservatives hope. Consider the fact that California initially needed 1.5 million signatures to trigger a recall election to be held within 60 to 80 days. That in itself is no small feat. Additionally, although this recall election is one of 55 attempts to recall a governor in California and one of six such previous efforts to remove Gavin Newsom, it is only the second recall election in the history of California, following the election of 2003 that placed Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger in office.

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Maybe the official red wave that begins to undo the damages caused to America since the inauguration of Joe Biden begins on Tuesday. If the GOP can take California, that kind of a major statement may spell doom for the Dems in the off-year races and next year’s midterms.

Julio Rivera is a business and political strategist, the Editorial Director for Reactionary Times, and a political commentator and columnist. His writing, which is focused on cybersecurity and politics, has been published by websites including Newsmax, Townhall, American Thinker and BizPacReview.

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