The Futures Are Bright, For Now

Posted: Jun 07, 2012 12:01 AM

Is this the Scott Walker rally? The “Romney has a chance” rally? Or, just a short covering “don’t know what the ECB will come up” with rally?

The market is up big pre-open this morning and it just looks like to me that shorts are pulling bets off the table. I wouldn’t read a lot into it and figure the market will sit on pins and needles again waiting for something out of Europe.

Traders have endured a litany of meetings. How many different bail outs have we had now? How many billions of euro’s have been pledged? One question I have, at what point does the market question the validity of the entire EU apparatus, individual EU governments, and simply sell everything?

It’s not as if they have given us anything rock solid that we can stand on before.

The market likes certainty and the actions of the EU have created some incredible uncertainties. The political process is painful to watch, as solution after solution is shredded away by leftists that want it all. There is no compromise from the left. There also isn’t a desire from people that are receiving government benefits to change. They have no hope, and no incentive to change.

What Europe is doing is trying to fix things on a macro level. However, the microeconomics that under pin their macro machinations are chipping away at the solution.

European regulations on employment for example create adverse incentives for hiring. But the EU can’t micromanage every single government. They have to do that on their own and that creates the frustration.

Suppose they come out with a solution that everyone seems like they can live with today. Do you give a better than 50% chance it actually can be implemented?

While the US is not anywhere close to Europe since our rules and regulations are different, and our economy far more dynamic, there are similarities. We have a lot of deadbeats on government transfer payments. In many cases, the economic incentives are arrayed so that it becomes much better to work the system for government transfer payments than actually go out and be productive.

I always remember the story of getting a CTA ticket in Chicago. At the office waiting in line, the teller said to the first person, “You will now be riding for free.” A person jumped up, cut in line and screamed, “I want to ride for free.” The CTA teller checked his ticket and said, “Sir, you already are.”

Everyone wants something for nothing if they can get it.

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