Minnesota has long been seen as a Democratic stronghold, and on the surface, that makes sense. In 1984, we famously stood alone as the only state to resist Ronald Reagan’s landslide, voting for our hometown kid, Walter Mondale.
For decades, Minnesota’s blue reputation has seemed unshakable, as no state in America has gone longer without voting for a Republican president. But if you take a closer look at the numbers, you will see a completely different story.
In reality, Minnesota has been one of the most politically split states in the country for decades, rarely electing trifecta control and consistently choosing statewide candidates from different parties since Reagan's landslide victory. We’ve elected Republican governors like Al Quie, Arne Carlson, and Tim Pawlenty. On the Democrat side, we’ve had Rudy Perpich, Mark Dayton, and Tim Walz. Oh, and let’s not forget Jesse Ventura, the Independent.
That’s an even split: three Republicans, three Democrats, and an Independent, alongside many split legislatures. There have been just a couple of trifectas this century. So, to say Minnesota is a deep-blue state is far from the truth. Several factors, however, have helped favor Democrats since Mark Dayton was first elected in 2010.
Donald Trump nearly flipped Minnesota in 2016, losing by just 1.5 points. All the while, Minnesota's state GOP has been plagued by a revolving door of inconsistent leadership, high staff turnover, and lackluster fundraising. The previous state chair didn’t leave Republicans in a good position, forcing the organization to start virtually from scratch in 2021.
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In contrast, Democrats have enjoyed a steady stream of fundraising, strong, consistent leadership, and an endless pool of talented operatives. Meanwhile, the Minnesota GOP has often found itself in a circular firing squad over the caucus system and endorsed candidates. Were it not for the leadership of our congressional delegation, led by Majority Whip Tom Emmer, the state GOP would be in far worse shape.
Even though the DFL swept the legislature for trifecta control in 2022, Republicans have reasons to hold their heads high. This wasn’t the decisive victory the pundits want you to believe.
Minnesota barely flipped. Jim Schultz and Ryan Wilson lost their statewide races by margins smaller than Trump’s 2016 loss. Schultz set a record for the most votes ever for a Republican statewide candidate, and Wilson’s race was even closer, decided by less than 10,000 votes. The DFL holds just a one-seat majority in the state Senate, with several battleground seats being decided by just a few hundred votes. All but one of the top ten battleground seats were won by Schultz and Wilson, showing that strong campaigns can still break through, even with all the odds stacked against them.
Despite outspending Republicans 10:1—including money from outside organizations bankrolled by coastal elites like Soros and the Rockefellers—the Democrats barely scraped by. Yet, they’ve governed as if they had a mandate from a deeply blue electorate, pushing a leftist agenda that would make even Gavin Newsom blush. The truth is Minnesota is a purple battleground, not a blue fortress, and voters on the ground are furious about the overreach.
Minnesotans didn’t want to ban abortion, but they sure didn’t want it legalized for all stages of pregnancy with zero restrictions. They wanted critical improvements in state governance, but instead, the DFL burned through a state-record surplus of $19.5 billion while raising taxes by another $9 billion, increasing state spending by 40%. Oh, and Tim Walz campaigned on sending $2,000 refund checks to Minnesotans, and they ended up with $260 refund checks. Ouch.
Under Governor Tim Walz, Minnesotans have fled to red states like Florida in record numbers, seeking refuge from the DFL’s hard-left policies. This overreach has created a favorable environment for Donald Trump in 2024. The state’s electorate is increasingly frustrated by policies that don’t align with its values, and the backlash is visible. For the first time in modern history, Hennepin and Ramsey County, the two largest Democratic strongholds, saw aggregate loss in population due to failed DFL policies.
While the Democrats still hold certain advantages, like fundraising and favorable demographics, they always have. Yet, Republicans have consistently made races competitive, thanks to Minnesota’s independent streak. After all, we did elect Jesse Ventura.
The tide is turning. J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Minnesota last week set a record for Republican fundraising, hauling in over $2 million—nearly double what Governor Tim Walz raised at his Boston event. Vance’s visit didn’t just fill the coffers for Trump’s campaign; it sent a message that Minnesota Republicans are serious about competing in the North Star State. Vance even hinted that Trump himself might return to Minnesota soon, saying, “My guess is that President Trump will be back in Minnesota before the election, but we’ll see.”
J.D. Vance was asked by donors to return to Minnesota during his record-breaking fundraiser, and President Trump was also asked directly the previous week in Detroit by key stakeholders.
The last time Trump and Vance visited Minnesota, before Walz jumped into the race, they packed out the Herb Brooks Arena in St. Cloud. Over 15,000 people showed up, with lines stretching for miles. The line was marked by the same running route from my days at St. Cloud State University. This wasn’t just a campaign rally; it was a show of force in a key battleground district for state Republicans that will ultimately decide the fate of the Minnesota state house.
Now, with Tim Walz on the Democratic ticket alongside Kamala Harris, Minnesota is even more in play. When Harris replaced Joe Biden, she held a comfortable double-digit lead in Minnesota, but that lead has shrunk dramatically. Walz’s mishandling of the Minneapolis riots, dubious military service claims, and his draconian COVID mandates have cast a long shadow, dragging Harris down to within the margin of error in some polls.
National scrutiny is finally catching up to Tim Walz, something Minnesotans have seen happen before. Both Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty faced national pressure that hurt their reputations back home. Even Amy Klobuchar has taken a hit to her popularity. Tim Walz is the latest to feel the heat, and the same local media that’s tried to protect him for years can’t cover for him anymore.
On top of this, the DFL’s overreach has alienated voters. Historically, Minnesotans have favored divided government, and now, one-party rule has created widespread discontent. People are ready to restore balance in 2024.
Republicans are already making moves. The Minnesota Voters Alliance and the MNGOP have filed a lawsuit against Hennepin County, accusing it of failing to ensure party balance on absentee ballot boards, violating state law. This legal battle could have far-reaching implications, and Republicans are determined to ensure election integrity after years of close races.
National trends are also favoring Trump. In blue wall states across the country, Trump is closing the gap. A recent poll in Minnesota’s second congressional district—won by Biden by eight points in 2020—shows Trump trailing by just two points. Internal polling for Republicans even shows them leading in six of their top seven battleground state House seats.
Outstate Minnesota is also fired up, and Republicans are better organized than ever. Not just by the state party, but its activists have organically created a strong ground game with a focus on electing conservatives to school board races. Their message? School choice and reversing woke ideology forced on them by Governor Walz, who is seen as the most polarizing figure for conservatives in Minnesota. These grassroots efforts are helping Republicans up and down the ballot, campaigning on issues that have 80-20 favorables with voters in outstate Minnesota.
Meanwhile, Democrats in Minneapolis are more fractured than they’ve been in years, with anti-war activists breaking away from the party. One in five DFL voters cast their ballots as “uncommitted” in this year’s primary, and that’s even with fellow DFL native Dean Phillips on the primary ballot. This week, we also saw law enforcement intervene in an anti-Israel protest that prompted an emergency message to be broadcast to University of Minnesota students. The radical left can’t be contained in the state, and these fractures are deeply embedded in the state’s Democrat Party.
Trump’s campaign infrastructure has grown in Minnesota too. Trump Force 47 is operating out of 14 offices statewide, with over 1,000 volunteers mobilized to turn out low-propensity voters who support Trump’s message. As someone who’s run a successful field office in Minnesota, I can tell you, we’re in the best position we’ve ever been to win this state for a Republican President this century.
In 2016, Minnesota came closer than ever to flipping red. In 2024, everything is in place for Republicans to finish the job. With DFL overreach, an energized Republican base, strong fundraising, and favorable national trends, Minnesota is poised to become a true battleground. The question isn’t if Minnesota is in play; it’s whether Minnesota is ready to go red.
Dustin Grage is a Minnesota-based journalist, GOP strategist, and conservative activist. Stay updated on his latest work and subscribe for future contributions at www.dustingrage.com. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter), TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook.
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