Old Auto Missing the Mark

In big corporate news, the firing of Mark Field, the well-liked and charismatic CEO of Ford, has dominated headlines. But lost in the debate on whether he was given enough time are the challenges for the industry in general, and old guard in particular, as market share slips and focus shifts to technological innovations.

Market Share Waning

Fifty years ago, the big three automakers controlled 88% of the total market share. Last month, total market share was just 44%.

• GM 17.1%
• F 15.0%
• Chrysler 12.1%

Some interesting things are happening in the auto industry, from electric to self-driving vehicles, and Wall Street is more excited about those trends than the dinosaurs in the industry plodding along; hence, the difference in share price between Tesla and Ford (see chart).

Moreover, the vehicle industry is a critical component of President Trump’s manufacturing-centric economic revival, just as sales may have peaked in 2016. With respect to production, last month, Mexico enjoyed a surge in production lifting its total North America share to 20.0% from 17.8%.

The big winners of the session include defense contractors, leading industrials higher (again), and semiconductor names helping technology put in another impressive session. I will say I’m not happy with volume- it’s not enough to get major indices through key resistance points.