There is still much confusion over the jobs report, and the reaction on Friday. Those that boil the market down to its most simplistic aspects are rejoicing as they see the Fed holding pat. But that wouldn’t explain the initial 258 point drubbing, or why the Dow is still down 2,000 points from the high, and global markets are at multi-year lows. On the other hand, when a firm like JP Morgan says we should expect 75,000 jobs a month as a new and okay norm, it blows my mind. I’m not sure what birth-death model they’re using, but it flies in the face of conventional wisdom and common sense.
I get that birth rate is low, and lifespans are longer, but the notion we should welcome lower job creation data is nuts.
This economy never got on track the way it could or should have because of suicidal fiscal policies. If we had the same animosity toward tyranny in the world that the administration has against individual and business success in America, there would be no ISIS; they would be decimated like the coal industry. But there is the intuitive nature of Americans to succeed even as there are fewer incentives and lots of penalties along the way.
For the moment, there are still a lot of unanswered questions from corporate profits to consumer spending. Maybe, I should have flipped those since the latter has to influence the former, except for the last couple of years, when it’s been about fewer shares rather than top line growth. I like when companies buy back its shares, but I love when companies have confidence to build factories and hire people. By the way, government can’t make this happen, but must facilitate a backdrop that encourages this to happen.
For now, the markets around the world are higher, mostly consolidating new bottoms, which is positive, but not the same as launching.
I’ll excited about the opportunities but let’s stay cool and calm. This is a period where we have to chase a little, which means we won’t get the absolute bottom, but will feel very confident after clearing key technology and fundamental hurdles.