A new announcement was made by the commonly referenced website RealClearPolitics (RCP). The news outlet is a go-to source for polling data, as the site compiles results from numerous research outfits regarding an array of issues and many races across the country. While it offers a broader picture of particular contests, their data also supplies journalists with choices; when they want to highlight a particular candidate, they can scroll through and find a poll with a favorable result for their targeted race.
That certain pollsters have a clear agenda in their results is not too mysterious. There are times when results are massaged by oversampling for one party, or even instances where they trim away responses to get a better balance of numbers. These shady practices lead to the Monday morning quarterback complaints after elections, where questions arise, such as, "How did the polling get the results so wrong?!"
Well, RCP is looking to address this. The outlet has announced they will begin to rate and categorize the polling companies on their level of quality. Now, RCP has not come out and directly attributed this to the bias from the institutions. It instead cites things like the challenges of fewer home phone lines, social media, etc. But it does come out to say some pollsters are simply of questionable quality (via RCP):
There are many quality pollsters and media outlets that are doing excellent work in a constantly changing technological and political environment. However, there are also pollsters and news organizations that are doing less-than-stellar work and, unfortunately, many of the polls from these organizations receive a disproportionate amount of attention.
To help address this problem, in the coming weeks RealClearPolitics will be rolling out a beta version ranking polling organizations. RCP will rank pollsters by their performance in recent elections, and will of course evaluate their performance in the 2022 mid-term election in just under a month. RCP’s goal here is simple. Accuracy is the foundational bedrock of public trust.
Every two years, we go through the same dance in political circles. The closer an election looms, the more attention gets paid to poll results, and there is a recognizable pattern. Through most of the summer and early fall, close races will show Democrats in the lead, and then in the weeks before the election, suddenly, the results tighten to within the margin of error. A cynical analysis suggests this is an attempt to push Dems as the better option ahead of the election, but then in an attempt to remain relevant, the numbers become closer to reality on the days before the vote. This way, historically, they are referenced as being more accurate.
That cycle of correction appears to be in swing right now, just weeks before the November 8 election. This is perfectly represented in FiveThirtyEight's polling graphic for the Senate. This chamber has been a focus for this election ever since the 2020 results put things at an even 50/50 party split, with almost all speculation that either side could take control by just a few seats. For months, however, Nate Silver's site has placed Democrats with a very comfortable advantage of around a 60-seat majority, but only now are things starting to correct.
Clearer signs of movement back toward the GOP in the Senate than you had a couple of weeks ago. Getting close to tossup territory.https://t.co/GA3xa1GJaG pic.twitter.com/baWOOLoVbJ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 19, 2022
For comparison, the RCP map shows the GOP holding a one-seat advantage, with seven toss-up races. Just as telling is a recent poll by New York Times/Siena, showing much more favorable conditions for Republicans in many areas over what they showed just one month ago, and with one glaring result. There are all of the predictable corrections on display in the breakdown and metrics as the "Republicans Gain Edge":
With elections next month, independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. Disapproval of President Biden seems to be hurting his party.
Republicans enter the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress with a narrow but distinct advantage as the economy and inflation have surged as the dominant concerns, giving the party momentum.
Now "suddenly," the usual course correction is taking place as we approach the final days.
The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters. the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans.
The big surprise, at least to some in the media, is the numbers regarding interest in the January 6 commission. Public interest in this topic has been steadily eroding, and it shows up low on most lists of topics of interest to voters, despite the commission intending this to be a major news item ahead of the midterms. Note how it held the final hearing last week and barely rated a murmur in the news cycle. Not only has interest in the January 6 Committee waned, but the intended goal has also apparently created a backlash.
In one of the poll questions, respondents were asked what they considered to be a "major" threat to democracy. While Donald Trump rated high, the Republicans did not, and in a surprise, Democrats held more disfavor. While 28% considered the GOP a threat to our democracy, more saw the Democrats as a viable threat at 33%. If you were ever curious why Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger have not been rewarded for their valiant efforts on behalf of the Dems, here is your reason.
These kinds of tidal shifts are one way RealClearPolitics will begin measuring the quality of pollsters, weeding out who is operating with an agenda apart from those with more measurably accurate results. While a great idea on the part of RCP, it is arriving a bit late as far as the 2022 midterms are concerned. Likely they will be measuring the results of the November 8 elections and implementing their new ranking system after the fact. At least someone is willing to take a more critical look at these contrived poll outlets and the fractured metrics they have been producing.
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