Clinton, Trump and Third Party Candidate Possibilities Create More Financial Uncertainty – Part 1

BGASC Metals
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Posted: Jul 27, 2016 12:01 AM
Clinton, Trump and Third Party Candidate Possibilities Create More Financial Uncertainty – Part 1

Presidential Uncertainty Just Rose To New Level

Due to events surrounding the U.S. Presidential campaigns in recent days, U.S. political uncertainty is joining ‘global economic uncertainty’ at the top of the list of stock, bond and precious metals investors’ concerns.

Democrats

The Democratic Party and their nominee find themselves in disarray at the precise time they should be honing their message and presenting their candidate as suitably qualified to become the first female President of the United States. It isn’t working out that way. Events have unfolded to create massive uncertainty not only that call into question the viability of Hillary Clinton as a Presidential candidate, but of the continued viability of the Democratic Party.

Hillary Clinton

Ms. Clinton has found her path to Democratic coronation much rockier than she or political pundits anticipated. Many observers expected that Ms. Clinton would hold few or no press conferences, attend a few debates, scheduled during off hours, with her minor challengers, glide to the Democratic Party nomination and easily vanquish her Republican opponent. Then Bernie Sanders happened, followed by Donald Trump and an FBI investigation and finding that she acted extremely carelessly with classified information as Secretary of State.

Then there were the Democratic National Committee (DNC) Wikileaks emails, which dropped on the eve of the opening of the Democratic Convention. The leaks showed email supporting evidence that the DNC actively worked to deny Bernie Sanders the nomination and to ensure that Hillary Clinton emerged as the victor. Further leaked documents showed that the DNC worked closely with main stream media outlets to plant stories favorable to Hillary Clinton and to chastise reporters when they did not parrot their pro-Clinton narrative.

As the Democrats get ready to nominate Ms. Clinton, a recent CBS poll found that just 29 percent think that she is trustworthy. Yet, polls show that well over 40% of the electorate would vote for Ms. Clinton. The DNC Wikileaks emails paint the Democratic Party and the mainstream media in a very poor light that may cause an erosion of confidence in those entities. A loss of confidence in institutions like political parties, national politicians and mainstream media outlets creates an atmosphere ripe for uncertain outcomes and potential civil unrest.

Russian Involvement in DNC Leaks?

The DNC has claimed that Russia was involved in the Wikileaks email release that exposed the DNC’s inner workings and often politically incorrect vernacular. Russian involvement won’t absolve the DNC from the negative impact of the documents that were in the DNC Wikileaks but rather will serve to provide another level of uncertainty. The FBI is investigating the possibility of Russian involvement in the DNC Wikileaks. Is Russia trying to influence the U.S. election? If they successfully hacked the DNC server, did they also hack Hillary Clinton’s private email server and gain access to the over 110 emails that contain classified information as well as the other Clinton emails that the FBI was unable to retrieve?

The possibility of Russia’s involvement raises many uncertainties if indeed they are in possession of DNC, Clinton and/or other U.S. government documents: what do they know? Will they make further releases of information that may expose wrong doing that may undermine trust in U.S. government officials and create political turmoil? If so, when and how often would they make such releases? Will any such Russian breaches/releases be treated by the U.S. as requiring a ‘response’? These questions will cast a shadow over the U.S. election season and perhaps well into the term of the next President.

Growing U.S. Russian tensions would only add to the global economic uncertainty.

A Divided Democratic Party – Lock Her Up!

A chorus of “lock her up” erupted at the Republican convention on more than one occasion, highlighting the visceral reaction that a Hillary Clinton candidacy engendered among Republicans. The same cry of incarceration was also heard from Bernie Sanders’ protestors outside the Democratic convention venue in Philadelphia. A large portion of Democrats are unsatisfied with their party’s nomination of Hillary Clinton and many of Bernie Sanders supporters are justifiably enraged after sifting through the DNC Wikileaks emails.

While the Democrats have created a set of uncertainties by nominating a former Secretary of State who was under FBI investigation during the Democratic primaries, the Republicans have also nominated a candidate sure to create uncertainty, which will be the subject of tomorrow’s article.

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This article by BGASC is not, and should not be regarded as, investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular course of action.