The 2024 presidential election is one to watch if there ever was one. We haven't seen a rematch since 1892, and former and potentially future President Donald Trump could pull off nonconsecutive wins, much like Grover Cleveland did. This one isn't just like to be a close and competitive election, but it could be a close and competitive one in many states. There's of course the battleground states. There's also ones that Trump's campaign believes are in play, such as Virginia and Minnesota, as well as even New York and New Jersey. Recent polling has Trump talking about New Hampshire now as well.
On Tuesday, the Trump War Room X account was all too excited to share a poll from NHJournal/Praecones Analytica, with Trump and President Joe Biden pretty much tied, at 36.6 percent and 36.5 percent among registered voters, respectively. A headline from the NJ Journal declared "SHOCK POLL: Trump Tied With Biden in Blue New Hampshire."
Trump holds onto more support from his fellow Republicans (84.2 percent) than Biden does from his fellow Democrats (80.7 percent), a trend we've seen and made note of when it comes to other polls from other states and nationwide.
The poll was conducted May 15-20 online with 862 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.33 percent. With a design effect of 1.56, the weighted margin of error is plus or minus 4.18 percentage points.
President Trump is EXPANDING the Electoral Map.
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) May 21, 2024
New Hampshire is IN-PLAY. pic.twitter.com/m32RMK09mL
Not only are Trump and Biden tied in such a poll, but the methodology section presents an interesting point. "Political polls using online panels occasionally display a liberal/Democratic house effect in comparison to other polls, and this should be kept in mind when interpreting the results presented above," it mentions.
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If there's a purplish state in the Northeast, New Hampshire would be it. At least, it has a bit of an Independent streak. Republicans control both the state House and state Senate, and their governor is a Republican, Chris Sununu, who is quite popular there, and who handily won reelection in 2022 by 15.5 percentage points.
The state has voted for the Democratic nominee every year since 2004, though President George W. Bush did win it in 2000. While the Granite State voted for President Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, it's gone through periods of voting for the Republican nominee, as it did in the 1970s and 1980s. Hillary Clinton just barely won the state in 2016.
The two senators and House members are also Democrats. The NH Journal makes reference of this blue trend so as to highlight how bad it would be for Biden to lose after he won in 2020, and by comfortable enough margins. We've heard about Biden struggling with his 2020 coalition. It turns out that he's struggling with New Hampshire voters as well:
As the write-up mentions:
Democrats have all but owned the Granite State’s four Electoral College votes, winning seven of the past eight presidential contests – including Joe Biden’s eight-point victory over President Donald Trump in 2020.
But the latest NHJournal/Praecones Analytica poll finds Biden tied with Trump in New Hampshire, putting him at risk of becoming the first Democrat to lose the state since Al Gore in 2000.
...
According to Praecones Analytica’s Dr. Jonathan Klingler, Biden’s struggles come from his loss of support among swing voters.
“While registered voters of both parties are largely united around their nominee, independent/undeclared voters are splitting their support in four statistically indistinguishable ways: between Biden, Trump, [Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.], and other unnamed candidates,” Klingler said.
“In comparison to exit polls from the 2020 presidential election, independent/undeclared voters in New Hampshire demonstrate significantly lower support for Biden, as Biden won around 60 percent of these voters in 2020, compared to around a quarter if the election were held today.”
...
But a Democrat in danger of losing a state in the heart of deep-blue New England would be a bad sign for the incumbent.
Biden also has a Kennedy problem. The new poll shows Kennedy support among Democrats is nearly twice as high (11.2 percent) as among Republicans. (6.6 percent).
The piece also reminds how Biden was not on the ballot in New Hampshire for their January 23, 2024 primary. The DNC insisted on upending the primary system by making South Carolina the first state to hold its Democratic primary, which didn't happen until February 3. New Hampshire's Democrats in Congress--Sens. Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen as well as Reps. Chris Pappas and Annie Kuster--were particularly incensed by the move.
Although Biden won the primary by a write-in campaign with 63.9 percent of the vote, it's still not a good look. "He spent months insulting New Hampshire, and he wonders why he’s got a problem," a Biden supporter is quoted as telling NHJournal on background. "Politically active people, our party base, we understand the big picture, but the average voter thinks he was just being a jerk to us."
The write-up made note of a Tuesday event that took place, which RNC Research and the Trump War Room also posted and reposted about. As Nick Arama at our sister site of RedState pointed out when covering the poll, it was the New Hampshire event where Biden made his creepy and bizarre comments about marrying into a family of daughters.
BIDEN: "I say to every young man thinking of getting married, marry into a family with five or more daughters" 🥴 pic.twitter.com/GA9tW8Myih
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 21, 2024
"And, by the way, I say to every young man thinking of getting married: Marry into a family of five or more daughters. I did. My wife is the oldest of five sisters. You know why? One of them will always love you. Not the same one. One of them is always — be on your side. That’s the biggest advantage of marrying into five daughters," he offered.
Plus, he was once again slurring his words and having difficulties with the teleprompter.
Biden struggles to read from his giant teleprompter — must be a day ending in "y" pic.twitter.com/n1nmzAV1pM
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 21, 2024
BIDEN: "After I signed the asjiojfeijgergewefhahohoiore into law" pic.twitter.com/3bezB4k34t
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) May 21, 2024
There was also very few people actually at the event.
“I feel like I’m at a wake.” One of the ppl at the @joebiden Nashua event.
— NH Journal (@NewHampJournal) May 21, 2024
More excitement among Trump fans lining the road than in the venue. pic.twitter.com/oIbhM5H3fm
Weirdo https://t.co/h5yomfjwpb
— Kurt Schlichter (@KurtSchlichter) May 21, 2024
This wasn't the only recent poll to come out of New Hampshire, and one from the University of Massachusetts-Lowell's Center for Public Opinion with likely voters shows Biden with a lead, highlighting how it is indeed a bit of a blue state. Even still, as the NH Journal piece highlighted, it would still be embarrassing for Biden to lose this state, or for even it to be so close.
Although Biden leads Trump 42-36 percent, among the poll's highlights is how Biden is only "slightly ahead" of Trump. Both men each enjoy 82 percent among their fellow Democrats or Republicans, although Trump leads with Independents, 30-21 percent. In fact, more Independents say they are "undecided" (29 percent) than say they are voting for Biden.
A plurality of voters, at 41 percent, believe Trump will ultimately win the election, while 35 percent say they think Biden will, and 22 percent are undecided.
It makes sense that Biden's lead is only a slight one, given that 63 percent of voters disapprove of his job performance, with 41 percent, a plurality, saying they do so "strongly." Meanwhile, 62 percent approve of Sununu's performance, with 27 percent saying they do so "strongly."
There's also a question about New Hampshire being the first primary in the nation, and a whopping 80 percent said they more so agree with the statement that "New Hampshire should continue to hold the first in the nation Presidential primary every four years," including 66 percent of Biden's fellow Democrats.
📊 New Hampshire GE: UMass Lowell
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 22, 2024
🟦 Biden: 42%
🟥 Trump: 36%
🟨 RFK Jr: 11%
⬜ Undecided: 9%
—
Job Approval
Gov. Sununu: 62-39 (+23)
Pres. Biden: 36-63 (-27)
—
YouGov: #4 | 5/6-14 | 600 LV | ±5.24%https://t.co/XUP6zo3hKl pic.twitter.com/KR2AmVEMlK
The poll was conducted May 6-14 with 600 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 5.24 percent.
New York and New Jersey are likely not going to go for Trump, but if his campaign wants to try to put them in play, more power to them. Even if they don't go for a Republican in 2024, they might in future years, especially if a Republican actually bothers to spend the time campaigning in such places.
States like Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are even more likely, even if Trump's win in any of this states is only a narrow one. As Democrats in those states laugh off Trump's efforts, we'll see who has the last laugh, especially if their states help elect Trump as the 47th president.
