OPINION

Markets Hoping For A Fed Rescue

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Yesterday’s session was very impressive, as the market climbed off the canvass at a pivotal momentum when it was certain massive selling would occur.  The Dow rallied after losing gains at the start of trading, and unlike the other two huge days during this crisis, the buying wasn’t focused on Utilities, Real Estate and Consumer Staples.

Instead, yesterday, the big winners were Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Financials, which happened on news the administration may provide massive help.  Today, President Trump is meeting bank executives. We hope there will be news from the meeting, even for initial actions similar to those announced by health insurers at the White House yesterday.

S&P 500 Index

+4.94%

Communication Services (XLC)

+5.10%

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)

+5.53%

Consumer Staples (XLP)

+2.87%

Energy (XLE)

+4.74%

Financials (XLF)

+5.87%

Health Care (XLV)

+3.43%

Industrials (XLI)

+5.18%

Materials (XLB)

+4.06%

Real Estate (XLRE)

+4.86%

Technology (XLK)

+6.67%

Utilities (XLU)

+0.93%

 

What Industries Should Be Bailed Out?

Yearend cash and cash equivalent numbers below underscore the position some key industries find themselves, as everyone lines up with hat in hand for federal financial assistance.

Airlines

Cash & Equivalents (billion US dollars)

2019

2018

DAL

$2.8

$1.6

AAL

$4.0

$4.9

UAL

$4.9

$4.0

LUV

$4.1

$3.7

 

Cruise Ship Operators

Cash & Equivalents (billion US dollars)

2019

2018

CCL

$.518

$.982

RCL

$.265

$.307

NCLH

$.253

$.164

 

Oil Drillers

Cash & Equivalents (billion US dollars)

2019

2018

CHK

$.140

$.213

WLL

$.009

$.014

PXD

$.924

$1.5

CXO

$.070

$.484

 

Portfolio Approach

We added a new position in Technology yesterday.

Today’s Session

The media is taking President Trump to task for not showing up at the presser last night, as he has promised a monument financial package sooner rather than later.   It’s intriguing that President Trump has been publicly pushing Jerome Powell, but today he is getting pushed around by the stock market.   As tough as his tweets are, Powell will attest in his memoirs that nothing is more intimidating for a Fed chairman than a plunging stock market, where the world is looking for monetary policy to come to the rescue.