Tipsheet

The U.S.'s Path to the World Cup Final Is Here and It's Not Gonna Be Easy

Joseph Chalfant
Joseph Chalfant  |  June 27, 2026 1:00 PM

With only a few matches of the group stage remaining, the U.S. Men’s National Soccer Team’s path to the World Cup Final has been set and it’s monstrous.

The U.S. will begin their round with a winnable bout against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the newly-established Round of 32. The Round of 32 was introduced to the World Cup this year after the tournament was expanded from 32 teams to 48 teams. The U.S. will be the heavy favorite in the match, as Bosnia only managed to secure advancement as one of the 8 third-place teams to go through to the knockouts.

Should the U.S. win their match, they will advance to the Round of 16 where they will face either Belgium or South Korea. Belgium are by far the favorite to advance through their match, as they sit in the 10th spot in the FIFA World Rankings against the U.S. at 15th. The U.S. would face their toughest challenge of the tournament should Belgium advance to the Round of 16.

Things don’t let up in the Quarter Finals, either. Spain are the heavy favorites to reach the Quarters alongside a potential U.S. team. Spain came into the tournament as one of the likely winners and currently sit third in the World Rankings. Despite an unexpectedly poor result against Cinderella-story Cabo Verde, they’ve proven to be on form and capable of winning the whole thing.

Should the U.S. overcome the odds against Spain, they would then be projected to face the number 1 ranked France in the Semi-Finals. France managed to make it to the Final in 2022 where they battled with Argentina 3-3 after Kylian Mbappé scored all three of France’s goals. They would eventually lose to Argentina on penalties.

If the U.S. pulled off the upset of the century against France, defending-champs Argentina would be their likely opponent in the Final. Argentina is still led by veteran World Cup leading scorer Lionel Messi, widely considered to be the greatest soccer player in history. Argentina currently sit at the number 2 spot on the World Rankings.

While the route to the Final is nothing short of perilous, the USMNT has seriously outperformed the expectations that many had laid out before the tournament began. With quality play, the USMNT could achieve their first knockout win in history as well advance to the Quarter Finals for the first time in the modern era.