A new policy briefing shows that the Trump administration is on track to drastically reduce legal immigration before the end of his term.
BREAKING: Trump admin’s policies will reduce legal immigration to the United States by an estimated 33% to 50%, or by 1.5 million to 2.4 million legal immigrants, by the end of Trump’s four-year term, per National Foundation for American Policy analysis.
— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) January 20, 2026
The National Foundation for American Policy published a policy analysis estimating that the Trump administration will issue up to 2.3 million fewer green cards, a 50 percent decrease from 2023.
The estimate also concludes that chain migration will be heavily impacted by the Trump administration’s commitment to tightening immigration policy, with up to 1.6 million fewer green cards expected to be issued to applicants designated as “Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens.”
“The Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens category (the spouses, children under 21, and parents of U.S. citizens) is not subject to a numerical limit and, as a result, does not have backlogs,” the organization said in its report. “Since there are no backlogs, new restrictions on admissions in this category are a crucial way for immigration opponents to achieve significant reductions in legal immigration.”
Much of the focus on the Trump administration’s immigration policy has been on its effectiveness in combating illegal immigration, with President Trump announcing that illegal border crossings are at historically low levels on Tuesday.
🚨 BREAKING: President Trump declares to the world America now has the strongest border in HISTORY
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) January 20, 2026
"Crossings are down -99.999%. That means down 100%!"
"99.999. I want to find that one person!" 🤣
"For 8 months, ZERO illegal aliens were admitted to our country. ZERO."
HUGE. pic.twitter.com/3NIhu26BEH
Through these policies, the Trump administration has achieved net-negative immigration for the first time in 50 years.