Texas’ Democratic Senate primary just got a lot rougher for Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-30).
Crockett made waves when she entered the race last month, with members of the chattering class speculating about how her candidacy might affect the primary race. Indeed, she was leading the pack of Democratic contenders.
However, it appears the winds might be shifting.
A new Emerson College/Nexstar poll released January 14 shows State Rep. James Talarico leading Crockett 47 percent to 28 percent among likely Democratic primary voters.
This is a significant shift from a December Texas Southern University survey that put Crockett in the lead by eight points. In effect, Crockett went from being the frontrunner to the underdog in a month.
To make matters worse, Talarico is now winning in roughly six in ten white and Hispanic primary voters. However, Crockett maintains about 80 percent of black Democrats. But not all black Texans are in her corner.
A Foundational Black American Sista standing on business breaks down how Jasmine Crockett is fighting hard to destroy the country our ancestors built and how identity politics is destroying our community pic.twitter.com/7BtDKxlRNd
— Woodz 🇺🇸 (@Nibiru1000) March 12, 2025
But this isn’t surprising considering the early warning signs. Crockett’s approval rating leaves much to be desired. A Change Research survey conducted in November and released in early January found that only 33 percent of voters viewed her favorably, while 40 percent viewed her unfavorably.
Almost half of the respondents said they would “definitely not” vote for her, which is the highest among any major candidate in either party. However, Talarico’s unfavorable ratings were far lower than Crockett’s.
Ouch.
But it gets even worse.
Several Democratic strategists have gone on the record criticizing Crockett, arguing that she is to polarizing and controversial for a statewide race. Some told The Texas Tribune that they are concerned that she “will also inspire independents and Republicans to come out against her” and contend the upcoming midterm elections present too promising an opportunity for Democrats to run a candidate who is only known for “clapping back” at Republicans on TV.
Eric Koch, a Democratic strategist, told the news outlet that “This is not a base mobilization election — Trump carried Texas by 14 points — it’s about who can create a big enough coalition to win. Talarico can do that, Crockett can’t.”
A House Democrat told Axios that Crockett “might win [the] primary, she ain’t winning a general in Texas.”
This is U.S. representative Jasmine Crockett who is always making news.
— Vision4theBlind (@Vision4theBlind) January 10, 2026
She's nothing but a plant. She is a member of the Delta Theta Sigma sorority and most likely a masonic Eastern Star. She is bought and paid for and playing a role to cause division. pic.twitter.com/Ej8eRUKF8g
Democratic voters would be foolish to nominate Crockett. Sure, no Democrat stands a good chance of becoming the Lone Star State’s next senator. But Crockett is the last person Democrats should want facing the Republican candidate.
As other Democrats have pointed out, Crockett does not come off as a serious person. During her stint in Congress, she was known only for spitting sound bites and trying to channel Donald Trump in her fiery rhetoric.
But she has absolutely no substance. She has no innovative legislative ideas. She rarely talks policy. Her entire shtick consists of “Republicans are raaaycisss and mean!”
If Democrats want to have a chance of winning in Texas, they will need more than clever clapbacks.