Tipsheet

Pending Home Sales Defy Expectations, Rise to Highest Level Since 2023

Amy Curtis
Amy Curtis  |  December 30, 2025 10:00 AM

Here is some good economic news for your Tuesday morning.

Pending home sales climbed more than expected in November, with a slight improvement in prices and mortgage rates pushing buyers into the market. This marks the highest level of pending home sales in almost three years.

According to Bloomberg, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) index showed contract signings rose 3.3 percent last month to 79.2. Those gains were "broad-based across regions" and exceeded most estimates by economists.

Gee, doesn't that sound familiar? Earlier this month, the GDP growth "unexpectedly" outpaced what economists expected, too. It seems like maybe economists either a) don't know what they're talking about or b) have a political agenda clouding their "expert" advice.

According to NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yan, "homebuyer momentum is building." He cites improving affordability and more inventory. Contract signings have increased for the past four months, something last seen during the pandemic-induced housing market.

Interest rates have come down from seven percent to 6.3 or 6.4 percent, and home prices are growing at much slower rates compared to 2024.

Looking ahead at 2026, Yan says we could see 14 percent sales growth. That's a very optimistic prediction; most housing market analysts think we'll see growth closer to 1.7 percent.

Affordability is going to be the main issue heading into the 2026 midterms, and that's something many pointed out on X.

"We need to continue housing affordability heading into 2026, with groceries being the main priority if we want to sway the American People," wrote Shawn Ashers.

"To all those who said I was wrong about home prices improving - do your homework before you scoff at me or anyone else saying things that don’t fit your narrative," said Francisco Vandalay.

Others pointed out that this might be a short-lived response to a dip in mortgage rates.

"Short-lived sugar high? The pop came from mortgage rates dipping briefly to ~6.2%. If rates stabilize or rebound (or economic uncertainty rises), this "momentum" could vanish quickly — economists see 2025–2026 sales staying roughly flat vs. 2024," wrote Emmanuel Oyetoro.


The Trump administration has long argued that illegal immigration has contributed to high housing costs. Earlier this month, Scott Turner, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) blamed the Biden administration for high housing prices.


"The unchecked illegal immigration and open borders policies allowed by the Biden administration continue to put significant strain on housing, pricing out American families," Turner told Fox News. "These policies have plagued America’s housing market, but in President Trump, Americans finally have a leader fighting to restore sanity to American immigration policy."

In a post on X, Turner said that deporting illegal immigrants and kicking them out of housing would "free up housing units, bring back affordability, and restore safety."

Others pointed out that a lack of housing supply also increases costs, including Jenna Stauffer, Global Real Estate Advisor at Sotheby's International Realty of Key West. "We’ve really been under building for almost two decades. After the Great Recession, construction basically stalled, and it took years to recover. By some estimates, the U.S. is short four to seven million homes, and that long-term shortage is the core issue behind today’s affordability challenges," she said.

This is an opportunity for the Trump administration to continue its immigration policies and to work to boost the construction of new housing going into 2026.