Tipsheet

Here's Who Leads the Pack for Democrats' Choice in 2028

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  November 19, 2024 6:05 PM

The 2028 presidential election is still a long way off, though there's still been plenty of chatter about which name leads the pack to follow Donald Trump as the next Republican nominee. That's true for the Democrats as well now, after Vice President Kamala Harris lost to Trump, and Democrats also lost control of the Senate and failed to recapture control of the House. On Monday night, an Echelon Insights poll went out showing that amongst 14 candidates, as well as a "Someone else" response and "Unsure," Harris still has a healthy lead, with 41 percent saying they'd vote for her if the 2028 primary were held today.

In addition to Harris' lead of 41 percent, there's the 16 percent who said "unsure," Eight percent said Gov. Gavin Newsom, who, like Harris, is from California. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who served as Harris' running mate for this cycle, has only 6 percent support, as does Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who Harris very nearly picked as her running mate, has 7 percent support. 

Such a pick, in many ways, isn't surprising. Harris is likely freshest on voters' minds. It's also incredible, though, that the party is not yet ready to move on from her. This is even as the Democrats have engaged in quite the blame game over her loss, especially as they forced President Joe Biden to drop out of the race in July.

That Harris leads the pack so convincingly is certainly curious, and not just because she lost in a landslide. Following such election losses, Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) expressed to The New York Times in an interview that she blamed Biden for not dropping out sooner and for endorsing Harris so quickly, thus getting in the way of a more open primary process. 

Her plurality support is also in conflict with a write-up from Puck News, which partnered with Echelon on the poll:

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With Democrats flagellating themselves over their inability to connect with voters who don’t shop at Whole Foods, a majority of Americans (51 percent) now have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic Party. Adding salt to that wound: Trump’s current favorability rating (49 percent) is higher than those of Harris (47 percent) and President Joe Biden (42 percent). The Republican Party is also now viewed more favorably (48 percent) than the Democratic Party (44 percent).

Democrats are staggering into a kind of political wilderness they haven’t seen since John Kerry’s loss in 2004. In a survey of Democratic voters, the Echelon poll found no clear standard-bearer as the party tries to figure out what’s next. Yes, it’s a bit of a silly exercise to wonder about who Democrats might run in 2028, but the lack of any obvious answer just underscores the uncertainty within its leadership structure. Asked who Democrats would vote for as their nominee in four years, Harris was far and away the top pick—the only Democratic figure with double-digit support. But only 41 percent named Harris, with the large majority of Democrats looking elsewhere. Unlike Republicans in the Trump era, Democrats have no tradition of looking to the past for their presidential nominees. It’s difficult to imagine Harris making the case that she should lead the party moving forward.

The poll also found that just 15 percent said the Democratic Party should move "to the left," while 18 percent said "to the right." Twenty-three percent were "unsure," and a plurality, at 44 percent, said "it should stay the same." 

Such a poll was conducted November 14-18 with 1,010 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Harris' lead in the poll has been a trending topic over X for Tuesday, with many chiming in that they hoped Harris would indeed be the nominee once more. She ran in the crowded field against Biden for 2020, making for some rather memorable moments going after him on the debate stage, though she dropped out in December 2019, before any primary votes were cast. She was also, of course, installed as the replacement nominee for this cycle.

If Harris were to run again, that would indeed likely be good news for Republicans, given the disastrous campaign she ran and the stunning loss she faced earlier this month. That being said, Harris' name has been mentioned when it comes to running for governor.