The math doesn’t work for incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA). It’s over. As Mia wrote, Republican Dave McCormick has won, ending Casey’s near-20-year tenure in the US Senate. The outstanding vote that’s left is in deep red Cambria County, which had election issues on Tuesday:
McCormick's campaign released a statement Thursday declaring victory and citing "ruby red" Cambria County as a Republican stronghold: "While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania."
Casey's campaign, meanwhile, said they were "confident that at the end of that process, Senator Casey will be re-elected." The senator's statement also noted that the vote margin was narrow enough (McCormick's 49 percent to Casey's 48.5 percent) to trigger a recount — within half a point, the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania, according to state law.
[…]
Once polling comfortably ahead, Casey lost ground on the campaign trail to the point that McCormick narrowed the gap between them to inside the margin of error.
"While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points," per Cook Political Report.
AP Race Call: Republican David McCormick defeats Democratic incumbent Bob Casey in Pennsylvania Senate race. https://t.co/Eboa05ZvQ4 pic.twitter.com/lfCnjxjMGd
— The Associated Press (@AP) November 7, 2024
You knew things couldn't have been going well for Casey when he blasted ads touting his support for Trump policies.
A new ad from Pennsylvania Democratic Senator Bob Casey, in a tight race for reelection, says “he sided with Trump” on trade. Republicans “are saying it shows Bob Casey knows that that Donald Trump is strong in Pennsylvania,” says @MarkHalperin. “Some say it shows he knows he's… pic.twitter.com/3JWmuhFdlM
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 19, 2024
Bob Casey cozying up to Trump in ads and bragging he “bucked Biden” is the surest sign of who is leading in Pennsylvania. pic.twitter.com/kgC6f5H7a3
— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) October 18, 2024
Bob Casey throws temper tantrum after being confronted over his false TV ads.
— McCormick War Room (@TeamMcCormickPA) October 20, 2024
Q: "That ad was rated Four Pinocchios by the Washington Post — that's not good. Do you regret—"
Casey: "I don't really care what the Washington Post said!"
Q: "Do you think you're telling people the… pic.twitter.com/Ouc3EimmRL
Yet, Casey isn’t conceding. Even when there isn’t enough vote left for him to win, and with Fox News and the Associated Press calling it, Mr. Casey, who accused McCormick of hanging around election deniers, has ironically become one:
Casey is not conceding.
— Max Cohen (@maxpcohen) November 7, 2024
From spox Maddy McDaniel: "This race is within half a point and cannot be called while the votes of thousands of Pennsylvanians are still being counted. We will make sure every Pennsylvanian’s voice is heard.” https://t.co/Qkpa5Go2g9
Old enough to remember in March when @Bob_Casey bizarrely accused Dave McCormick of "hanging out with election deniers."
— Matt Whitlock (@mattdizwhitlock) November 7, 2024
Now he is one. pic.twitter.com/PGCdUJWoA1
McCormick declares victory after the Associated Press called the race for him. Bob Casey is refusing to concede and Marc Elias is vowing to fight against the election result. https://t.co/Z7FpYwR110
— Jerry Dunleavy IV 🇺🇸 (@JerryDunleavy) November 7, 2024
So, now it’s okay to challenge election results. It’s okay because it’s (D)ifferent, right?
Why AP called @DaveMcCormickPA’s win over @SenBobCasey ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/Yd2AIPFiLw
— Audrey Fahlberg (@AudreyFahlberg) November 7, 2024
It was always perfectly legal and standard to challenge election results. Democrats were the original crew to do so, dating back to 2004 and 2016. So, please spare us this kabuki theater. Dave won. Bob lost.
What a win.