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Polls Out of This Swing State May Be Even More Crucial Now

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 29, 2024 6:30 PM

With Election Day now just a week away, we're seeing the final polls come in. With early voting having been underway, for weeks in some states, we're really down to the final stretch, and it's worth wondering what to make of these polls, especially as they continue to show a close and competitive race. Momentum really looks to be with former and potentially future President Donald Trump in his race against Vice President Kamala Harris, especially since he's leading in most of the swing states. Nevada, though, after a recent ruling from the state supreme court on mail-in ballots, may be even more worth keeping an eye on.

It would appear that they don't just have Election Day in the Silver State. On Monday, the Nevada Supreme Court ruled that mail-in ballots without a postmark can arrive up to three days after Election Day. That liberal attorneys like Marc Elias were celebrating the decision should be telling enough as to how bad this is.

RealClearPolling has Trump up by +0.3 in Nevada. There are plenty of recent polls showing a tie or a statistical tie, including one from the Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster no less. 

That poll even shows Harris with an edge of 0.2 over Trump, with 47.8 percent to Trump's 47.6 percent. Just over 3 percent are still undecided, while 1.5 percent said they'd vote for another candidate. The poll was conducted October 25-28, with 1,082 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. 

Then there's a poll from CNN that was also released on Tuesday. Back in August, they had Harris leading Trump by 48-47 percent. Those numbers have now flipped, and it's Trump who leads Harris by those same exact margins. 

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The poll was conducted October 21-26 with 683 likely voters and a pretty wide margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. 

Speaking about their polling, which also surveyed voters in Arizona, the CNN write-up emphasized the close nature of the race, with the results "finding no clear leader in either state."

"The findings come as large numbers of voters report having already cast ballots and the pool of those open to changing their mind shrinks," the write-up also noted. In Nevada, 95 percent of voters say their "mind [is] made up" on which candidate they support.

Trump does look to have made some gains in Nevada, as the write-up highlighted:

Harris’ edge with women is a bit tighter in Nevada (51% support her, 46% Trump). That closer margin is largely driven by the relative lack of a gender gap among White likely voters in the state: Trump has a 15-point lead over Harris among White men (56% to 41%) and a 12-point lead among White women (54% to 42%).

Hispanic likely voters in Nevada split about evenly between Harris and Trump (48% support Harris, 47% Trump). Harris does hold a wide lead there among voters younger than 35, though: 53% support her versus 39% for Trump.

Independent voters in both states split roughly evenly between Harris and Trump. In Arizona, 45% support Trump to 43% for Harris, a 6-point improvement in support for the vice president since August. In Nevada, independent likely voters divide 46% Harris to 43% Trump, about the same as in August.

Sure enough, CNN also did a segment highlighting Trump's support from a key demographic, inviting viewers to "See why many Latino voters in Nevada are now supporting Trump." Dana Bash may be shocked by such findings, but she shouldn't be, as other polls have shown Trump leading with or at least performing better than past Republican nominees have when it comes to Latino voters. 

There's good news for Trump on the enthusiasm factor and issues as well. While 59 percent of likely voters in Nevada who are voting for Harris say it's a "vote for Harris," while 82 percent of likely Trump voters say theirs is "a vote for Trump."

Of the five issues voters are asked about when it comes to which candidate they trust more, Trump leads in three of them, and by wide margins. On the economy, voters say they trust Trump more by 50-41 percent; on immigration they say they trust him more by 52-37 percent; and on foreign policy they trust him more by 49-42 percent over Harris. 

On "protecting democracy," which has been an issue Harris and Democrats overall have been obsessing over, Harris only leads by 46-45 percent, and has seen no change since August on that issue. 

Trump also has the edge on which candidate "can bring the kind of change the country needs," by 47-41 percent. He and Harris are tied at 44 percent when it comes to which candidate "shares your vision of the country," and Harris only has a slight lead, of 46-44 percent, when it comes to which candidate "will put the country's interest above their own. 

The CNN poll has me a bit suspect, though, considering that they show Harris up by +1 in Arizona, 48-47 percent, when Trump led by +5 in the late August poll. That's another good state for Trump, too, as RCP has him up by there by +2.2 over Harris. 

Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in their polling for the Telegraph, also has Arizona as Trump's best swing state, where he leads Harris by 49-47 percent. Trump and Harris are meanwhile tied at 47 percent each. 

Harris and Trump are also tied in Pennsylvania, at 48 percent each. Harris meanwhile has a small lead in Michigan, of 49-48 percent over Trump, and in Wisconsin, where she leads by 49-47 percent.

Meanwhile, the Atlas National poll has Trump up in both Arizona and Nevada, with the former being his best state and the widest lead of any of the states, at +3.5. He's also up by +0.9 in Nevada. The only state where Harris has any edge is in North Carolina, which is at +0.5, the same edge Trump has in Wisconsin.

That edge in North Carolina is perhaps most suspect of all of though, especially since Harris seems to have given up on such a state and looks to be reallocating her ads from there to other states.

Nate Silver's forecast for Tuesday mentioned how there's "good news for Donald Trump in Nevada," which may be particularly telling given that he has the candidates tied there, at 48 percent each. However, the polls have been trending by R+0.3 since last week, and by R+1.8 since last month.