Tipsheet

Can Trump Win New Hampshire? Here's Why the Latest Poll Has People Talking.

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 28, 2024 5:30 PM

With just over a week to go until Election Day, former and potentially future President Donald Trump is feeling good about his chances. This doesn't just have to do with the electoral college but also a potential popular win vote as well as wracking up wins in states not necessarily thought to be in play, including Virginia and perhaps even bright blue New York. One of those states causing chatter is New Hampshire, especially with the results of a recent poll. 

On Sunday, a New Hampshire Journal/Praecones Analytica poll was released showing Trump with an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris, 50.2-49.8 percent. The write-up for the NH Journal acknowledges that such a lead is "slim" and "insignificant" as well as "well within the margin of error" of plus or minus 3.93 among registered voters.

But, there may still be something to the momentum, with the write-up's headline highlighting this "POLL SHOCKER."

"But the fact that Trump, who’s lost the Granite State twice, is leading in a state Democrats carried in seven of the last eight presidential races, could be very significant. It’s one of a series of indicators that the Trump campaign is expanding the field of potential pick-up states less than two weeks before Election Day," the write-up also mentioned.

"There’s a reason Kamala Harris has been spending money in New Hampshire. She’s on defense and knows President Trump is on the path to victory," said Trump national campaign spokesperson – and Atkinson, N.H., native – Karoline Leavitt. "To my fellow Granite Staters who want to keep our beautiful state safe, business-friendly, and free — get out and vote for President Trump. Kamala Harris is a radical liberal who would destroy New Hampshire and America forever."

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Trump came particularly close to winning New Hampshire in 2016, earning 46.5 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 46.8 percent. The state last voted for the Republican nominee in 2000, though the state voted for the Democrat, former President Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996. 

The poll also showed promising results for other Republicans as well, including Kelly Ayotte, who is running to replace current Gov. Chris Sununu, also a Republican. She leads Democrat Joyce Craig by 51.9 percent to 48.1 percent. By 52-48 percent, respondents also want Republicans to control Congress.

Sununu looks to be feeling rather hopeful, as the poll write-up. "These New Hampshire poll numbers are mirroring the national trend," he's quoted as saying. Harris reinforced her supporters’ worst fears when she confirmed she wouldn’t provide any change from the current administration. Trump now controls the narrative as the only alternative to America’s current situation. And that’s a powerful message for voters in the final week of the campaign."

Such a poll was conducted October 24-26 and included 622 registered voters. 

As the write-up also mentions, this isn't the only poll showing a close race in the Granite State. 

Emerson College Polling/WHDH released a poll last week showing Harris up by 50 percent to Trump's 47 percent in New Hampshire, also within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points among 915 likely voters. 

"Harris’ margin among women is similar to that of Biden in 2020 — however, male voters have shifted about two points toward Trump" Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said, highlighting Harris' trouble spots. "In addition, Harris is underperforming Biden’s 2020 support among independent voters, who break for Harris by 13 points, but broke for Biden by about double that amount."

Speaking of other states potentially in play, especially New York, Trump and several other speakers appeared at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, further making the case that the Empire State could be in play. 

While New Hampshire only grants 4 electoral votes to the winner, there's something about the Republican candidate winning a state in a region that so heavily favors the Democratic candidate. Maine's 2nd Congressional District is often the exception, however. 

For Trump, or any future Republican nominees after him, to win the Empire State would not only be considerably significant as it carries with it 28 electoral votes and could thus help contribute to a landslide victory, but because a Republican hasn't won in decades. Trump acknowledged as much on Sunday. The last Republican to do so was President Ronald Reagan, who won in 1984 and 1988.