Tipsheet
Premium

'Deadlocked to the End': New Poll Shows Trump and Harris Tied, and You Bet There's Ramifications

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 25, 2024 2:00 PM

Vice President Kamala Harris is running out of time to win this election, with just a little more than a week to go. There's some hope that Harris might make enough gains with undecided voters who are breaking for her, but there haven't been too many undecided voters this cycle, and former and potentially future President Donald Trump looks to have the momentum. 

On Wednesday night, The Wall Street Journal released a poll showing Trump up against Harris by 47-45 percent in a full field and 49-45 percent in a head-to-head matchup. This wasn't the only one showing a drop in support for Harris, though. Friday morning brought us the latest and last poll from The New York Times/Siena College, with the ramifications of such a poll becoming a trending topic on X. 

The poll shows Trump and Harris tied, at 48 percent each in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump has the edge of 47-46 percent in a full field. Republicans and Democratic candidates also each enjoy 48 percent support when it comes to the generic Congressional ballot. Tellingly, the poll contains 52 percent of voters who say they voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, while 45 percent voted for Trump, when excluding those who did not vote.

Harris led by +3 over Trump in a poll conducted a little less than a month ago. 

A headline from The New York Times focused on that tie, "Harris and Trump Deadlocked to the End, Final Times/Siena National Poll Finds." The subheadline notes that the "electorate has rarely seemed so evenly divided."

Recommended

Did You Catch What Kamala Harris Said About Religious Exemptions for Abortions? Madeline Leesman
Was This the Best Answer of JD Vance's Town Hall? Rebecca Downs

The opening of the write-up focused on this point as well, speaking about "an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided," with the poll noting, "[T]his latest poll, as most of the polls done by Times/Siena over the past three months, is evidence of an electorate that is both polarized and frozen. There has been little change on some of the key questions used to measure voter sentiment."

In case there's any doubt, the write-up speaks about the worrisome news for Harris, especially as her support has dropped (emphasis added):

The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Ms. Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Ms. Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

...

Ms. Harris’s position, if anything, may have declined among likely voters since the last Times/Siena College poll, taken in early October. At the time, she had a slight lead over Mr. Trump, 49 percent to 46 percent. The change is within the margin of error, but The Times’s national polling average has registered a tightening in polls over the past few weeks as well, suggesting at the very least that this contest has drawn even closer.

The poll highlights "glimmers of hope" for each of the candidates, though with Harris, it may be grasping at straws.

While Trump's shrinking lead on who voters trust more on the economy is seen as one of those "encouraging signs" for Harris, he still has a lead of 52-45 percent. That Harris also leads on abortion, an issue she has obsessively focused her campaign on, is also nothing new. She also is leading with undecided voters, though. "About 15 percent of voters described themselves as not fully decided, and Ms. Harris is leading with that group, 42 percent to 32 percent," the poll write-up highlighted. 

Ian Sams, a Harris spokesperson and senior adviser, was all too happy to highlight these results.

The poll also spoke to hopeful signs for Trump. Immigration is going up in importance, with 15 percent of voters saying it's their top issue, compared to 12 percent previously. Trump leads on that issue by 54-43 percent over Harris, just as he's led previously on the issue, and in virtually all other polls. 

The write-up also highlights that 28 percent of respondents say the country is moving in the right direction. There's mention of how "Trump has repeatedly painted a dark picture of the nation under President Biden and Ms. Harris," though this isn't just on Trump, but what Americans experience themselves. 

Further, the topic about the direction of the country seriously tripped up Harris during her Fox News interview last week with Bret Baier. "You know and I both know what I’m talking about. You know and I both know what I’m talking about," Harris tried to offer as part of her delusional response that involved bringing up Trump, prompting Baier to respond, "I actually don’t. What are you talking about?"

Regarding a similar question, more Americans believe that "Our problems are so bad that America is in danger of failing as a nation" than agree with the sentiment that "Our problems are bad, but America is not in danger of failing as a nation any time soon," by 36-24 percent. 

The poll results show further positive findings for Trump, especially regarding his lead on the issues in other ways.

While immigration and abortion are tied as the second most likely issue for voters to pick when it comes to what's most important to them (at 15 percent), the economy is the top, with 27 percent saying it's their most important issue. 

When asked, "Which candidate do you think would do a better job of handling the issue you think is most important?" Trump leads Harris by 49-46 percent.

The obsessive and laughable narratives from the Harris-Walz campaign and Democrats overall about how Trump has been "exhaustive" also appear to fall flat. Not only are Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-OH), doing more interviews than their counterparts, but a plurality, 42 percent, "strongly disagree" with the idea that "Donald Trump is just too old to be an effective president."

Trump and Harris are also tied with their favorable/unfavorable ratings, with the two candidates at a 48/50 percent favorable/unfavorable ratings. 

The poll was conducted October 20-23 and included 2,516 voters nationwide. The margin of error among likely voters was plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. 

At the national level, Harris' lead has been quickly dropping and is now completely gone. According to RealClearPolitics, the candidates are tied at 48.4 percent, with The New York Times poll included. On Thursday, Harris' lead was down to +0.2, thanks to the WSJ poll. 

What does a tie mean, though? It means that it's certainly possible Harris will win, which shouldn't be surprising based on the polls. If past poll results are any indication, though, and if Trump once more outperforms the polls, he'll likely come out as the victor.

The final polls from The New York Times/Siena College for the 2020 and 2016 elections showed Biden polling by +9 and Hillary Clinton polling by +4, for instance. 

The results of other polls and this tie have led CNN's Harry Enten to predict Trump could win the popular vote, another trending topic on X, referring to that scenario as how "Trump may finally get his great white whale."

The poll results were discussed throughout the morning on CNN, with Enten focusing on how the poll from The New York Times/Siena College is "right in the middle of the spectrum when we're talking about recent polling data," noting, "they're very close races within the margin of error."

"But the bottom line is, with the popular vote, which we really haven't focused upon, a very, very tight race, John. The fact is, Donald Trump is very much in a position, he could win the popular vote, which, of course, is something he would absolutely love to do," Enten stressed to CNN's John Berman when analyzing the various poll results. 

Enten also reminded that, by the numbers they're using, Harris is up +1 at the national level, though Biden was up by +9 against Trump and Clinton was up by +6. 

That's why this time is different than previous elections, even one where Trump won in 2016. "So now Donald Trump's in a position he really hasn't been before at this point in the campaign where he could truly compete and we can truly say that the popular vote at this point is way too close to call."

That becomes even more stunning considering a Republican hasn't won the popular vote since the 2004 election. Before that, it was 1988.

"So, the fact that the polls right now are so close, John, the fact that Donald Trump has a legitimate shot of winning the popular vote is something I think a lot of folks, including in my line of work, really didn't think could possibly happen when Donald Trump was running last time around. He could make history, not just for Donald Trump, but for a Republican candidate as well," Enten also stressed. 

In talking about various scenarios with Berman, including those that viewers might not like, Enten made clear that "Donald Trump winning the popular vote could absolutely happen," telling viewers, "You might as well wrap your minds it now, folks, if you don't like Donald Trump."

Even if the popular vote is close, a win would still be significant for Trump. It's also still possible for whoever the future president is to win the popular vote narrowly, but have a landslide victory in the Electoral College.