Tipsheet

These Two New Polls Show Really Bad News for Kamala in Her Race Against Trump

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  October 24, 2024 2:00 PM

On Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, two major polls were released showing more bad news for Vice President Kamala Harris in her run against former and potentially future President Donald Trump. Her national lead against Trump has plunged, all while Trump looks to have the momentum with less than two weeks before Election Day. 

A poll from The Wall Street Journal among registered voters shows that Trump is leading Harris by 47-45 percent, though that is within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. In a head-to-head matchup, he leads by 49-46 percent. 

Not only does Trump have the edge, but there's more bad news for Harris from there with less than two weeks to go before Election Day. Trump, however, continues to improve his image:

Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Now, the unfavorable views are dominant by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%. Moreover, voters give Harris her worst job rating as vice president in the three times the Journal has asked about it since July, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of her performance. 

By contrast, views of Trump have turned rosier. Voters recall his time as president more positively than at any point in this election cycle, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving of his performance in office—a 4-point positive job rating that contrasts with the 12-point negative rating for Harris. 

The poll also showed that the economy and immigration were the issues most important to voters when thinking about the election, as has been typical in other polls, especially when it comes to the economy. 

Not only does Trump have a wide lead over Harris on these issues, but his lead has gone up from a poll conducted in late August. By 53-41 percent, voters believe Trump will best be able to handle the economy, and by 53-38 percent, they say so about Trump on immigration.

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Another question on the economy showed more good news for Trump, in that 40 percent, a plurality, have a "very favorable" view of his "economic plan for the country," while 41 percent, also a plurality, say they have a "very unfavorable" view about such a plan from Harris.

Even where Harris has her biggest lead when it comes to what issue voters believe she'll best handle, on abortion, by 51-37 percent, this is an improvement from when her lead was at 54-34 percent. 

Trump also fares better in other areas, including when it comes to his characteristics over Harris:

  • By 46-44 percent, voters believe Trump "cares more about people like you," while Harris had led 44-43 percent in the August poll
  • By 49-43 percent, voters believe Trump "will stand up for American workers"
  • By 49-40 percent, voters believe Trump is the one who "would bring about needed change"
  • By 45-43 percent, voters believe Trump is the candidate who "has a vision for the future"
  • By 50-39 percent, voters believe Trump "has the experience needed to lead the country."

Unfortunately for her, 54 percent believe that "Kamala Harris will largely continue the approach and policies of the Biden administration," while just 41 percent say "Kamala Harris will bring fresh ideas and new leadership to the White House."

Republicans have even more of an edge over Democrats on the congressional ballot, by 49-45 percent. Their lead had been just 47-46 percent over Democrats in the poll from late August. 

The poll was conducted October 19-22, with 1,500 registered voters. 

At midnight, polling from Marist/NPR in certain swing states was also released, showing that Trump is either narrowly leading Harris or, in the case of Georgia, tied. 

In North Carolina, Trump leads Harris among likely voters by 50-48 percent while he leads Harris in Arizona by 50-49 percent. Trump and Harris are tied at 49 percent in Georgia, though this has been one of his better states overall in the polls. 

The polls were conducted October 17-22, with 1,226 likely voters in North Carolina and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, 1,193 likely voters in Arizona with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, 1,193 likely voters in Georgia with a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

With the WSJ poll included, RealClearPolling has Harris leading Trump at the national level by just +0.2. Trump overall leads Harris in the battleground states by +0.9, by +0.8 in North Carolina, by +1.5 in Arizona, and by +2.2 in Georgia, with Arizona and Georgia being his best states of all the battlegrounds.