Tipsheet

New Surveys Show the State of the Race in Pennsylvania

Leah Barkoukis
Leah Barkoukis  |  October 24, 2024 7:30 AM

New surveys in the battleground state of Pennsylvania show former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a tight race.

The Republican presidential nominee has the support of 49 percent of Keystone State voters while the Democratic presidential nominee has 48 percent support in the commonwealth, according to Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania. Three percent are undecided, though the survey notes that with these undecideds account for, Trump’s support jumps to 51 percent and Harris’ to 49 percent. 

Since the last Emerson/RCPA poll in late September, there has been no significant movement, Trump’s support increased a point while Harris stayed at 48%. 

A majority of Pennsylvania voters (85%) decided who to support over a month ago, while 7% made up their minds in the past month, 4% in the last week, and another 4% are still undecided. (Emerson College Polling)

“There is a significant age divide among voters: voters under 50 favor Harris, 57% to 39%, while voters over 50 break for Trump, 57% to 41%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. "Voters who decided over a month ago favor Trump 51% to 47%, while voters who made up their mind within the past month/week lean toward Harris 52% to 45%."

A New Franklin & Marshall survey found similar results among likely voters, with Trump leading Harris by 1 point, 50 percent to 49 percent.

The October 2024 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that the state’s current electoral environment seems to offer more advantages for Republicans than Democrats. Two in five (43%) respondents say they are “worse off” financially than a year ago, meaning voters are much less optimistic about their personal financial circumstances today than they were at the time of the last presidential election in October 2020 (Figure 1). Pennsylvania voters are also more pessimistic than optimistic about conditions in the state with about half (48%) reporting the state is “off on the wrong track.” (Franklin & Marshall)

As Guy reported last week, Democrats in Pennsylvania are worried the state may be "slipping away" from them. 

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