There's been a flurry of polls since last Tuesday's debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former and potentially future President Donald Trump. While Harris still looks to have the edge and perhaps has seen a bump, she's likely not where she needs to be, especially when comparing her margins to polls from previous elections.
Earlier this week, Cygnal released its post-debate national poll, emphasizing how "Post-Debate Poll Reveal Tight Race: Trump and Harris Neck-and-Neck in Key Battleground Districts." While the poll for the Generic Congressional Ballot does show a Democratic advantage for the first time, at +1, 47-46 percent, when it was +3 for Republicans in July, the numbers remain narrow. Harris only leads Trump by 47.4-46.3 percent among likely general election voters in a full ballot, and by 48-47.3 percent in a head-to-head matchup.
That lead is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.49 percentage points.
Not only is there not much of a post-debate boost for Harris, but it may not be so much to do with Harris herself after all. Harris also had a boost of sorts after becoming the Democratic nominee when President Joe Biden was forced out, as well as following last month's DNC, though they weren't all that impressive.
Pollster Brock McCleary offered some key points about what to make of this boost. "While Harris enjoys a post-debate bump across these battlegrounds, Trump's numbers have remained stable since March," he said. "The biggest delta in this data is the job approval of Trump's time in office versus the current Biden-Harris administration. This provides a clear path for Trump to win by contrasting how voters felt about their circumstances, and the direction of the country, when he was at the helm. The numbers for Harris represent a correction in the data that demonstrates how severely Americans were rejecting Joe Biden in July, not that they adore Harris in September. The data shows Trump voters like and support him more as a candidate than do Harris voters. If Trump can sustain his narrow advantage and down-ballot Republicans can weather September's disparity in negative advertising, Republicans can close strong in October," his statement continued with added emphasis.
Regarding the approval numbers mentioned in McCleary's statement, the poll fittingly ties Biden and Harris together when asking respondents if they "approve or disapprove of the job the Biden-Harris Administration is doing in the White House?"
Just 38 percent say they approve, while 55.1 percent disapprove of the job that the Biden-Harris administration is doing. This includes 54 percent of Independents who disapprove. Further, Democrats are more likely to say they only "somewhat approve" of the administration, at 40 percent, than they are to say they "strongly approve," at 37 percent. Fourteen percent of fellow Democrats also disapprove of the Biden-Harris administration.
Trump, meanwhile, enjoys a net positive with his job approval ratings from when he was president. Not only do 48.2 percent of respondents say they approve of his job as president, while 46.4 percent disapprove, Trump has much stronger support from his fellow Republicans. Ninety-two percent of Republicans say they approve of the job Trump did, including 75 percent who say they "strongly approve."
Regarding favorable ratings, Biden, Harris, and Trump all went up. For Biden, in particular, there wasn't really anywhere for him to go but up from July. His unfavorable/favorable rating is still at 57.1-40.8 percent, however. Trump's unfavorable/favorable rating is at 52.9-45.9 percent, while Harris is at 49.5-49.1 percent for her unfavorable/favorable rating.
Guy covered on Thursday how a Gallup poll showed an improvement for Harris and Trump, though it's Trump with the edge with a 53-46 percent unfavorable rating and a 54-44 percent unfavorable rating for Harris.
As the poll's "Insights & Analysis" highlights:
- Joe Biden’s image (41% favorable, 57% unfavorable) has improved from his lowest point in July but is still 16% net unfavorable. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris’ image has seen considerable improvement since being made the Democratic nominee. Her image stands nearly 1-to-1 at 49% favorable, 50% unfavorable.
- Harris’ image is split at 49% with Independent voters but has seen a considerable 38% net improvement. Her favorables have increased 16% with Democrats as well.
- Her image is also 6% net-favorable with suburban voters, improving net-26% since July.
- Donald Trump’s image has remained relatively steady, with some improvement seen among his favorables (+2).
A whopping 84.3 percent of respondents say the stakes in this election are "higher" than in previous elections. Eighty-eight percent of Harris-Walz supporters say so compared to 84 percent of Trump-Vance supporters. Among those most likely to say the stakes are "higher" include 89 percent of Democrats, 92 percent of liberals, and 89 percent of Biden voters from 2020. Just 77 percent of Liberals and Moderates say so, though.
While voters say "hopeful" best describes how they feel about the election, with 31.8 percent saying so, "anxious" isn't too far behind, with 30.8 percent saying so.
McCleary also touched upon much of this in weighing in on the "Motivations" of voters:
Motivations: Trump voters (54%) are more likely to be voting for a candidate they ‘like and support’ than Harris (47%). Trump’s image remains stable with at +2 favorable. Independent voters (65%) think the country is on the wrong track. A strong majority of voters (84%) said the stakes in the 2024 election are higher than previous elections.
Harris also has no such edge over Trump when it comes to the question of whether she or Trump "represents your political views and values?" Just over 50 percent say she does not, and the same goes for Trump. Their numbers are also nearly identical when it comes to voters who say the candidates represent their views and values, at 48.6 percent for Harris and 48.9 percent for Trump.
When it comes to the debate, 62 percent said they watched it live, with 53.8 percent saying Harris won and 25.1 percent saying Trump won. However, the most selected word for describing Harris' debate performance was still negative, with 11.1 percent saying the performance was "dishonest." For Trump, 10.4 percent said he was "disappointing" as the most selected word.
The poll surveyed 1,503 general likely election voters from September 11-13. While it was conducted right after last week's debate, it wrapped up before the second assassination attempt against Trump occurred on Sunday.
Guy also highlighted many of those other polls earlier on Friday, with his analysis surely being one to check out when it comes to where this close and competitive election stands today, especially in comparison to past elections.