Tipsheet

If Kamala Wants to Win Pennsylvania, This Isn't the Way to Do It.

Matt Vespa
Matt Vespa  |  September 14, 2024 12:01 AM

Pennsylvania is the ball game in 2024. The Keystone State has been a cruel mistress to the GOP in national contests since the 1990s. The last time the GOP clinched the state was during the 1988 and 2016 contests. That’s it. It’s often been a political mirage for GOP consultants since it’s a state that should be favorable, though it always falls short for Republican candidates. The collar counties around Philly and Allegheny County are where elections are decided, but Trump is back to solid footing here. If he can split with Harris in Bucks County, his winning formula in 2016 against Hillary, then election night could be tremendous.

 Another voter group that could help Trump this year in some crucial states is black voters. Trump is projected to win around 18 percent, the largest share since Richard Nixon in 1972. I could absolutely see Democratic pollsters and strategists not believe this, which is fine. They can eat crow in less than 60 days. But Pennsylvania is where this election will be won or lost for either Trump or Kamala, and the vice president did herself no favors serving up this word salad while in Johnstown yesterday:

"I am feeling very good about Pennsylvania because there are a lot of people in Pennsylvania who deserve to be seen and heard," she said. 

Oh, it gets worse: she reverted to debate form in a trainwreck interview with Brian Taff of Philadelphia’s Action News 6 ABC. When asked about how she will make life more affordable for Americans, she didn’t answer the question. It’s the first solo sit-down interview since she became the nominee, and it was a nightmare. She spoke about her middle class upbringing.

“I grew up in a neighborhood of folks who were very proud of their lawn, you know,” she said.

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On trying to persuade Trump voters to support her, there are no words to describe how poor this answer is:

You can see why she doesn’t do media. This was a local news outlet, and she flopped miserably. Over at CNN, even her aides think the ABC News debate did much for her despite the establishment press singing her praises:

Pennsylvania looks rough, though very possible, by their internal numbers before the debate. North Carolina, disappointing Democrats every election for the last 15 years, is feeling better to them this time around than Arizona, which Biden narrowly won four years ago. Nevada and Georgia both seem possible, though depending on the poll, can take a lot of squinting. Michigan and Wisconsin are looking like the best of the bunch for Harris, according to the campaign’s internal numbers.

As pumped as Harris aides are about her debate performance earlier this week, they don’t think it changed any of that.

It's no wonder why the Trump campaign said this interview was their latest ad drop:

Yikes.