They’re panicking. I would be, too, if I were a Democrat since the coup to replace Biden did little to change the race: Donald Trump now has a 63 percent chance to clinch 270 electoral votes. That probability has only increased since the Democratic convention. The latest New York Times polls that dropped over the weekend showed how this herculean effort to boot the president, get boatloads of cash, and ride on a convention bump to victory was a pure mirage.
For starters, there was no convention bump—all Kamala Harris did was con a bunch of rich white liberals in the cities to open their checkbooks and back a woman who has zero grasp of the issues. Like Biden, Kamala is hiding from the press. You already know why, but this is also what Biden did. How did that turn out?
Nate Silver: “Harris also blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of Tim Walz rather than Josh Shapiro: that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything.
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) September 8, 2024
I think Walz was a decent enough pick on…
Numbers coming within 10-15 minutes. I guess the silver lining for Harris that since our model had already gotten bearish on her, the NYT numbers don't hurt her quite as much as they might in other forecasts.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 8, 2024
NYT/Siena went into the field right after Biden dropped out in late July. They just released a new poll this morning, after a month of hype and the DNC. https://t.co/N1E1kFfIHf pic.twitter.com/51iPkXxJgl
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) September 8, 2024
Trump's share of Black voters, September 2020 NYT/Siena poll: 7%
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) September 8, 2024
Trump's share of Black voters, September 2024 NYT/Siena poll: 17%
Trump's share of Latino voters, September 2020 NYT/Siena poll: 31%
Trump's share of Latino voters, September 2024 NYT/Siena poll: 42%
🚨 BREAKING - New poll finds Trump SURGING in the Midwest, home to Wisconsin & Michigan, where he outperforms both 2016 and 2020.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 8, 2024
🔴 2016: Trump+4.3
🔴 2020: Trump+2.1
🔴 2024: Trump+11 pic.twitter.com/06BZZ9Zx1X
Yet, I got a kick out of Aaron Rupar’s tweet about the survey—it’s a sign that they’re panicking, and this survey was not good news for Harris:
Whether he ultimately gets 48 or 45 percent of the vote, Trump having this level of support is evidence of a profoundly sick society https://t.co/ottWqE7m91
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 8, 2024
Meanwhile, Trump was significantly behind Joe Biden in the polls in 2020. He’s now overperforming his 2016 and 2020 numbers in the Midwest. Also, let’s not forget that the pollsters haven’t fixed their polling issues gauging the Trump vote. It’s consistently been underestimated. As you can see, if all that separates Kamala and Trump is between one-to-two points, Trump likely wins.
Real Clear Quick Take - Episode 11
— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) September 5, 2024
In 2016 and 2020, pollsters underestimated Donald Trump's support in several key battleground states.
What might the race look like if this happens again?#RealClearQuickTake #Politics #Election2024 #Trump #Harris pic.twitter.com/jyUSBihqwW
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Honorable Mention: Former Obama aide also had a funny tweet about this latest poll:
Hilarious how the burden is put on ordinary people to "share some info" with their friends about what Kamala Harris would allegedly do with the awesome power of the presidency, rather than on the candidate herself, who has avoided public scrutiny to an absolutely shocking degree https://t.co/bjfV6NXlXm
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) September 8, 2024