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Pick Your Poll: Is Trump Down Big...or Slightly Ahead?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  August 27, 2024 10:05 AM

A new national poll from Echelon Insights gives Donald Trump a very narrow 49-48 lead over Kamala Harris across the country, whereas the latest survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University gives Harris a wide advantage, 50-43.  A few other recent data sets from pollsters I've never heard of also give Harris leads ranging from five to seven percentage points.  Morning Consult pegs her advantage at four points, in line with where she's been in that series throughout the month of August.  We'll look at the averages in a moment, but here's the strongest non-Rasmussen survey for Trump since Fox News gave him a one-point lead prior to last week's Democratic National Convention:


This poll has Trump up nine points with independents, whereas the various polls showing him down mid-single-digits have him faring worse with this key group. The RealClearPolitics average measures Harris' nationwide lead at 1.5 percentage points, and two points within the wider field (though nearly all of the polling was conducted before RFK, Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump).  Averages and trends are more interesting and telling than any single poll, and Harris has been pushing into the lead since early August, shortly after Joe Biden was drummed out of the contest by his party.  While the national numbers may be indicative of overall sentiment, we all know that a handful of battleground states will decide the election.  Here are a few new surveys out of two of them in the rust belt, all of which are very close and within the margin of error:


Relatedly, here are the Washington Post swing state averages, which roughly -- but not fully -- mirror RCP's.  It's extremely tight overall:


RealClearPolitics has Trump ever so slightly in front in Pennsylvania, too, though his leads in some of the other states are slimmer than WaPo has them.  All seven statewide averages them are within the margin of error.  The positive spin on all of this for Harris is that she's taken a moribund Democratic campaign, slouching toward near-certain defeat, and both energized and consolidated her party.  She's also more competitive among independents, at least for now, and has taken the polling lead nationwide.  She has a real chance of winning, as various models now favor her.  The positive spin on all of this for Trump is that he's polling better nationally than he was in 2016 or 2020, and that Harris has perhaps edged out to a modest advantage after a full month of glowing coverage and no scrutiny.  He's still in a better position on the top two or three issues facing the country (economy, inflation, immigration) with the fundamentals tilting his direction.  Add all of these factors together and we're looking at a jump ball.  Turnout, ballot operations, and independents.  I'll leave you with another reminder of the stakes of this election, in which Kamala Harris -- who has signaled openness to outright court-packing in the recent past -- is expected to be a powerful ally of anti-SCOTUS fanatics on the Left if she wins:


This is why both the presidential race and Congressional races are so crucial -- especially in the Senate.  On that front, the polls favor Republicans to hold serve in all of their seats this cycle (though Ted Cruz is once again being given a tough challenge in Texas), while West Virginia looks gone for the Democrats.  That would put Republicans at 50.  This, if is borne out, would be 51:

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That's the possible good news for the GOP.  The less good news is that in a slew of other should-be winnable races, their nominees are trailing by mid-to-high single digits, or even double digits.  Some of those seats may still be in reach, but Democrats are in a much better defensive position that Republicans had hoped, suggesting the ceiling might be a slim Republican majority in the upper chamber, with little breathing room.  Sometimes Senate races break late. Stay tuned.