Tipsheet
Premium

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbent in Key Senate Race Looks to Be Running Scared After Recent Polls

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  August 14, 2024 9:15 PM

With the November election looming that much closer, Republicans still look to have a pretty good chance of taking back the U.S. Senate. They're defending seats that are likely to go their way, and also have their sights set on ousting several vulnerable Democratic incumbents, including in key "Toss-Up" races.

One of those races is in Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is running for a fourth term. As we covered over the weekend, a recent poll from Emerson College showed that his Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy narrowly leading, with 48 percent to Tester's 46 percent. While such a lead was within the margin of error, it certainly showed improvement, given that Sheehy had been trailing Tester previously.

Such a poll does not look to be an outlier. On Tuesday, another poll was released, this one from American Pulse Research & Polling, which was commissioned by NonStop LOCAL. 

Sheehy was up by even wider margins, 50.8 percent to Tester's 44.7 percent. The poll surveyed 538 likely voters from August 10-12, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Trump had visited Bozeman, Montana last Friday, where Sheehy spoke, as did the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) chairman for this cycle, Sen. Steve Daines, who is also from Montana and who has supported Sheehy from the start. 

Recommended

Watch Scott Jennings Slap Down This Shoddy Talking Point About the Spending Bill Matt Vespa
Biden Was Too 'Mentally Fatigued' to Take Call From Top Committee Chair Before Afghanistan Withdrawal Sarah Arnold

The poll found that a majority of Sheehy supporters (60.7 percent) said they saw some rally coverage, while a majority of Tester supporters (53.8 percent), didn't see any rally coverage.

The results of the poll were a trending topic over X on Tuesday, with the possibility that such a race could affect which party controls the Senate following the November elections.

A press release from American Pulse shared with Townhall noted that the results indicate "Montana is poised to potentially shift Balance of Power in U.S. Senate."

In noting how Tester is in a "Tough Spot," given Sheehy's lead, the press release also mentioned that "Sheehy is over 50% for the first time in public polling, which signals a troubling trend for Tester. This survey shows Tester’s chance at victory and the Democratic Majority’s ability to maintain control of the U.S. Senate in November is becoming increasingly difficult."

Sheehy also had better favorable ratings, with a net favorability of +4.7 percent, compared to Tester's -7.0 percent favorable rating. 

Voters were also asked about a series of issues. For likely voters overall, their top three issues are "Inflation, Economy, & Jobs" (27.7 percent), followed by "Affordable Housing" (15.2 percent), and "Immigration & the Border" (14.3 percent).

These are quite similar to the top issues for Sheehy and Trump voters. Their first priority is also "Inflation," followed by "Immigration," and their third top issue is "Taxes & Spending."

Tester and Harris voters consider "Inflation" to be their third top issue, with "Affordable Housing" and "Democracy" coming in ahead of inflation as their first and second choices, respectively. 

It's particularly telling, and potentially shattering to an abortion-obsessed Democratic Party, that abortion doesn't come in as the top three issues for Tester or Harris voters. That being said, Sheehy even leads on abortion, by +2.4 percent, with 45.3 percent saying Sheehy is better on the issue, compared to the 42.9 percent who say so about Tester. 

Sheehy's lead on other issues by even wider margins. He has a lead of +17.2 percent on "immigration & securing the border," and +8.5 percent on "economy & inflation."

Also, 6.5 percent select Sheehy on who "Shares Your Values More," and 6.2 percent say Sheehy is a "Better Leader for Montana."

A write-up for Montana Right Now mentioned such findings, as well as a statement from the Tester and Sheehy campaigns. 

"Jon Tester will be re-elected in November because of his strong record delivering for veterans, fighting to lower costs for working families, and defending Montana’s way of life. Jon is focused on delivering for Montana families, not inaccurate polls from partisan pollsters," Monica Robinson, spokesperson for Montanans For Tester, said. 

The Tester campaign seems to be running scared. What happens if yet another poll comes out showing Sheehy in the lead?

Jack O’Brien, a Sheehy campaign spokesperson, meanwhile sounded particularly enthusiastic. "It's clear Tim is winning the ground war by traveling from town to town across Montana, looking Montanans in the eye, and sharing his commonsense agenda to defeat inflation, bring down costs, seal our border, fight for Montana families, and put America First! But, if we're going to win this race in November and finally retire Jon Tester, who is the number-one recipient of lobbyist cash, it will take every one of us working together to save our country," he offered. 

As we mentioned in Sunday's piece about the Emerson College poll, Tester has distanced himself from the Harris-Walz campaign, and hasn't even yet endorsed the vice president yet. An Axios report from Monday referenced how Tester and Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who is another vulnerable Democratic incumbent, are both keeping their distance. Both are skipping out on the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next week, and so are mentioned in an another Axios piece from Wednesday on "The Dems ditching Chicago."

Coverage from The Washington Free Beacon mocked the sense of "joy" that the mainstream media claims the Harris-Walz campaign is experiencing, to point out it's not something Tester appears to have with Harris as the nominee.

The report also highlighted Tester's previous connection to Harris:

BOZEMAN, Mont.—One would believe from media reports that Vice President Kamala Harris's rise sparks nothing but "joy" among Democrats. In one of the nation's most competitive Senate races, the new presidential ticket is nothing but a headache.

...

If joy was anywhere to be found in Montana on Friday, it was at a rally in Bozeman. National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Sen. Steve Daines (R., Mont.) brought former president Donald Trump to town for a show of unity. Trump, who won the Treasure State by 16 points in 2020, was introduced by a series of Montana Republicans who could not be less delighted about Harris. Their message was consistent: Tester has betrayed Montana voters and would rubber-stamp a President Harris agenda.

"When we heard that Kamala was going to be the replacement, we said, 'That's good for Tim Sheehy,'" Daines told the Free Beacon. "As Kamala Harris will continue to be defined by who she really is, versus this makeover that’s being attempted at the moment, the American people will see that she is the most liberal of all 100 senators."

Tester’s silence on Harris is conspicuous, given his past praise of her. In March 2023, Tester said that "of course" he supports keeping the vice president on the Biden ticket.

...

Republicans are also fond of pointing out Tester’s direct role in Harris’s political rise. When he chaired the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2015, Tester recruited Harris and personally complimented her "powerful campaign" in his book.

Tester’s race will likely decide control of the Senate in 2025, and Democrats are expected to spend upwards of nine figures to beat Sheehy. But even under the best conditions, Tester will need to peel off a good chunk of Trump’s supporters.

The NRSC is also looking to connect Tester to the radically left agendas of the Harris-Walz ticket and the Biden-Harris administration. 

Incumbents almost always tend to have an advantage, which is what makes this a real "Toss-Up" race. Especially with how well Trump performed in Montana in 2016 and 2020, and how well he looks to be performing again--he enjoyed 55 percent support in the Emerson College poll and 51.7 percent support in this poll--Sheehy could really pull off a win here with such coattails, Tester's vulnerabilities, and his own favorability.