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Major Poll Shows Harris Leading Trump, but Should We Be Skeptical?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  August 13, 2024 4:00 PM

Plenty of polls now show Vice President Kamala Harris with a lead over former and potentially future President Donald Trump. A major factor is that she's simply someone other than President Joe Biden, who dropped out of the race almost a month ago and endorsed Harris as his replacement. Harris has also been able to avoid speaking to the press and thus not answer for her far-left record. 

It's thus not surprising that the latest poll from The New York Times/Siena College shows Harris ahead of Trump in key battleground states, which Guy referenced on Monday when discussing whether Harris is "the new 2024 frontrunner."

According to the poll, Harris leads Trump in a head-to-head matchup by +4 in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all 50-46 percent.

When third-party candidates are added to the mix, Harris leads Trump by +5 in Michigan (48-43 percent), +2 in Pennsylvania (46-44 percent), and +6 in Wisconsin (49-43 percent).

One positive sign about the poll for Trump is that among the likely voter electorate in each state, he enjoys an edge regarding who voters trust more to handle the economy.

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Overall, likely voters trust Trump by 52-46 percent to handle the economy, while Trump has a similar edge in Michigan of 51-45 percent and 52-46 percent in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

This is significant as it's increasingly likely the poll we covered on Monday from the Financial Times/University of Michigan showing Harris with an edge on the economy is an outlier.

The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted August 5-9 and includes 619 likely voters in Michigan with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, 693 voters in Pennsylvania with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, and 661 likely voters in Wisconsin with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. 

That the poll has somewhat small sample sizes and a high margin of error is significant. But there are other warning signs. 

In addition to including posts from RealClearPolitics' Tom Bevan and Democratic strategist David Axelrod, Guy mentions this caveat about the poll when it comes to previous cycles:

Trump trailing in this series was a familiar sight in 2016 and 2020 (though he fared well this cycle against Biden), and as Bevan notes, this pollster is among the many that have chronically underestimated Trump's support. Veteran Democratic strategist David Axelrod isn't sure he's buying those margins (this analysis is likely a mix of candor, and a hedge against over-exuberance and inflated confidence within his party):

In addition to an acknowledgment from The New York Times that it gives "more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents," there's also the sample size from 2020.

Among overall likely voters, 47 percent voted for Biden and 41 percent for Trump. That Biden advantage exists in each of the swing states as well, 45-39 percent in favor of Biden in Michigan, 48-43 percent in Pennsylvania, and 49-41 percent in Wisconsin.

On Saturday, the Trump-Vance campaign sent out a memo from Tony Fabrizio and Tim Saler highlighting concerns with the poll. 

"The latest swing state polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin conducted by the New York Times and Siena College helpfully include the recalled 2020 presidential vote between President Trump and Joe Biden. They have dramatically understated President Trump’s support both among all registered voters and in their likely-voter model," they mention. "In each state, the gap between the survey’s recalled 2020 vote and the reported 2020 election results is more than the margin between Kamala Harris and President Trump. Once again, we see a series of public surveys released with the clear intent and purpose of depressing support for President Trump."

Even The New York Times' write-up speaks to whether or not this momentum for Harris will last:

While the reshaped race is still in its volatile early weeks, Democrats are now in a notably stronger position in these three battleground states that have long been key to the party’s victories — or defeats. Still, the results show vulnerabilities for Ms. Harris. Voters prefer Mr. Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.

...

It is unclear how much of Ms. Harris’s bounce in the polls stems from the heightened excitement surrounding her ascension to the top of the ticket, or whether that momentum will last. Candidates traditionally gain a few percentage points in the days and weeks after announcing their running mate. Ms. Harris announced her selection of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota on Tuesday, as voters were responding to the Times/Siena surveys in Michigan and Wisconsin.

...

But the polls also indicate clear vulnerabilities for the new Democratic presidential nominee. Forty-two percent of voters said Ms. Harris was too liberal; 37 percent said the same about Mr. Biden last October. Mr. Trump and his campaign have tried to define Ms. Harris as a left-wing extremist from deep blue San Francisco who is out of touch with swing-state voters.

Harris is favored not only because of big events such as replacing Biden as the nominee and announcing Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN) as her running mate but because of her lack of media interviews. 

Of course, the liberal mainstream media that is aligned with Democrats bears blame, too, especially with the positive coverage they bestow upon Harris, even when she won't grant a request for comments, as was the case with a glowing TIME magazine feature. 

In another write-up for The New York Times, Nate Cohn offers something of a glowing and gushing perspective of Harris and the race:

With Ms. Harris riding an extraordinary wave of momentum at the top of the ticket, at least for now, the usual political dynamic of the Trump era has been restored. In the poll, at least 49 percent of likely voters in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin say they have a favorable view of her, a level neither Ms. Harris nor Mr. Biden obtained in any previous Times/Siena poll this cycle.

...

One way to think about her position is that she has become something like a “generic” Democrat. This might sound like an insult, but it’s really not. In fact, nothing is more coveted. An unnamed generic candidate — whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican — almost always fares better in the polls than named candidates, who are inevitably burdened by all the imperfections voters learn about in the process of a campaign.

...

One way to think about her position is that she has become something like a “generic” Democrat. This might sound like an insult, but it’s really not. In fact, nothing is more coveted. An unnamed generic candidate — whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican — almost always fares better in the polls than named candidates, who are inevitably burdened by all the imperfections voters learn about in the process of a campaign.

But, as even he acknowledges:

Whether this will last is an entirely different question. Ms. Harris may be polling like a generic Democrat, but she’ll now be subject to much more scrutiny and attack. To this point, she’s benefited from a few weeks of very favorable media coverage, major endorsements and an outpouring of good will from voters who had been yearning for an alternative to two disliked older candidates. But this period will not last forever, and the question is whether she will retain this kind of support when the going gets tough.

The poll doesn’t offer an indication either way. But the huge swing in opinion on Ms. Harris in just the last few weeks is a reminder that the public doesn’t necessarily have firmly held views about her. If Mr. Trump’s lead over Ms. Harris in earlier polling wasn’t necessarily based on solid views of the vice president, it can’t be assumed that her lead over Mr. Trump stands on firm ground today.

These findings present an opportunity for the Trump-Vance campaign to capitalize on how far-left, radical, and extreme the Harris-Walz ticket is, and what it would mean for the country. Voters could be stuck with Harris for four or even eight years if she wins in November, all after running a brief and sheltered presidential campaign for a few months.

In addition to writing puff pieces on her, the mainstream media has covered up for Harris by claiming she wasn't the border czar, and GovTrack deleted its page showing Harris was the most liberal senator in 2019, as well as one of the least bipartisan and one of the most absent. 

Harris currently has an overall lead of +1.1 over Trump, according to RealClearPolling. With the poll included in the averages, Harris leads by +2.4 in Michigan, Trump drops to a lead of +0.8 in Pennsylvania, and Harris leads by +0.8 in Wisconsin. 

The forecasters and betting markets also show Harris with an edge now. 

The momentum is on Harris' side, but there's still a little less than three months before the election, giving the Trump-Vance campaign time. 

It's worth leaving off with a reminder to be forewarned about all the polls. "Look at how many polls coming out are from Democrat-leaning outfits. It's 2-3x than before the Democrats swapped out their elected nominee for Kamala Harris. There's definitely a concerted push to make it look like Kamala has taken a lead," Cygnal's Brent Buchanan said in a statement to Townhall.