Joe Biden’s 2024 candidacy is over. This trainwreck, which we witnessed at Scooter Store-level speed, has finally concluded with the president dropping out earlier today. Like most things with his presidency, it was also botched since it initially wasn’t clear that he would endorse Kamala Harris, his vice president. There was 30 minutes of uncertainty. Biden can’t transfer his delegates to Harris, so the Democratic Party will have an open convention next month. Harris is gaining endorsements from top Democrats, but supporters of California Gov. Gavin Newsom have been circulating an anti-Kamala memo. He’s likely the only candidate in this rushed forum that could challenge the vice president (via Semafor):
Supporters of California Governor Gavin Newsom are circulating a polling memo making the case for the Democratic nomination for president.
The memo, which was shared with Newsom’s donors and political supporters before President Joe Biden withdrew from the race Sunday, analyzes seven recent public polls to conclude that Newsom is “one of the strongest possible candidates” and “as strong if not stronger as any of the top Democrats being mentioned as a potential candidate,” performing similarly to Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and outperforming Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
“Newsom has better net favorability ratings and lower negatives than Biden and Harris” the California pollster Ben Tulchin wrote in the July 18 memo, addressed to Newsom. Tulchin, who has worked for Newsom and Vice President Kamala Harris in the past, said he sent the memo independently because he was concerned about the direction of the party.
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Newsom, with his national profile, media savvy, and fundraising ability, is in some sense the only other Democrat obviously able to step onto the national stage.
When this chaotic convention starts, you’ll see one lasting impact the Obama legacy has had on Democrats: the total hallowing out of their candidate bench. It was dismissed during the Obama presidency, but numerous state party apparatuses atrophied. These vessels are the pipeline for new candidates. In 2020, many up-and-coming talents were brutally exposed for being unprepared for primetime or the presidency. They made for good guests on MSNBC, but national campaigns are marathons, and none could make it. Only Biden did—because he hopped on a chair lift to the top when the entire field was left for dead.
Newsom and Harris are the two best candidates right now. We might as well give Trump 400 electoral votes. Still, let’s watch the chaos but stay focused. We still need to win this thing, and while money is pouring in, Harris was trailing Trump by a larger margin than Biden in key swing states. It’ll likely worsen once she opens her mouth on the campaign trail.
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Let's be honest. It's Kamala's show. Newsom has presidential ambitions but on his own terms. I doubt he'll want any part of this sinking ship. The same with other governors eyeing 2028, and probably have been for quite some time.
Surveying a few top Dems: they'd be shocked if anyone of significant stature decides to challenge Harris.
— Sam Stein (@samstein) July 21, 2024