MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN -- After the final night of the 2024 Republican National Convention came to a close, with balloons descending from the ceiling, I offered my overall assessment: It was a "very successful convention overall," I wrote -- in apparent agreement with Van Jones, among many others. I lauded the "incredible stagecraft and riveting opening" to Trump's speech, which were unlike anything I've seen in politics. But after the portion about the assassination attempt, Trump's remarks "became a riff-heavy rally ramble, rather than a focused convention address." A strong convention speech would have been much shorter, and targeted specifically at a wide audience, as opposed to a hardcore rally audience. I was situated in a position inside the arena where I could see the teleprompter, and I'd estimate that perhaps half of Trump's hour-and-a-half marathon was riffed and unscripted. It was too much, but he cannot help himself. However, I wrote, "I don’t think that matters much. Trump and the GOP are in a position to win the election. We’ll see what the Democrats do over the next few weeks."
Indeed we will. Trump and his running mate should travel the country, of course, and the campaign should do what it needs to do, but I think the smartest possible approach for the next few weeks is to mostly stand back and let the Democrats' chaos and dysfunction play out. Wasting resources and energy attacking a ticket that may not exist by late August seems foolish. The coverage of the other party's internecine fight will be overwhelming, so Team Trump ought to do little to shift the glare of that spotlight. They are winning. Let the other side do what it's going to do, then recalibrate as necessary, privately plotting contingencies. It's unclear where this is all going on the Democratic side, though it does seem likelier than ever that Joe Biden will be forced into withdrawing. Then again, denials, pushback, and reports of fury among his inner circle could possibly stave off or delay that outcome. Elected Democrats and media influencers have been unleashed to make the pile-on as continuous and painful as possible, in order to drive the president from the race. He very well may withdraw, even in a matter of days. But if he decides he doesn't want to go, he clinches the nomination by simply doing...nothing. And he is capable of doing nothing.
I'm not sure whether the conflicting reports coming out of Bidenworld are evidence of a campaign in its final death throes, or if they point to a huge behind-the-scenes tug of war, result uncertain. I also get the sense that at least some of the 'reports' about Biden moving toward an exit are designed to influence events, not relay what's actually happening. There is enormous investment within the Democrat/media power class to make Biden's departure feel absolutely inevitable. Every hour that passes with Biden not putting out a forceful statement about staying in (this one strikes me as vague) increases the likelihood that he is, in fact, getting out. The other side of that coin, though, is that every day that passes with Biden still in the race makes everything more difficult to substitute in someone else. Which brings us to the next question in all of this: Who would that someone else be? Talking to Democrats -- from plugged-in elites to rank-and-file voters -- two answers arise.
Many (maybe most) of them say it would have to be the Vice President. She is eligible to inherit some of the Biden war chest that others couldn't, she carries some imprimatur of actual voters, and she simply could not be passed over as a black woman without igniting another brutal round of recriminations. We know that when she's under fire, Kamala et al do not hesitate to reflexively play the race and gender cards. We would likely see that sort of battle, on steroids, if there's a movement to bypass her. Other Democrats fear that she is a weak candidate and would lose, especially saddled with all the administration's vulnerabilities, and having been an active participant in the Big Lie about Biden's condition. They don't care about their primary process or their voters. They rigged the 2024 primary for Biden, now they're trying to rig the whole thing to erase Biden, and possibly Harris, too. They care about winning, and they'd prefer an "open," rapid, mini-primary leading into Chicago, with an entirely new ticket being picked by a few thousand delegates (sorry, millions of voters).
This group acknowledges that standing up a brand new campaign with a brand new ticket just weeks before early voting begins would be a big challenge with many inherent risks, but they still think it offers a better chance of victory than sticking with Biden or Harris. Tick tock:
DNC Rules Committee is emphasizing the roll call vote *must* happen by 8/7 to prevent any GOP legal challenges to ballot question.
— Peter Hamby (@PeterHamby) July 19, 2024
So these theoretical non-Biden delegates would have to be lined up before then, unless there’s a rule change. https://t.co/4y9c34UjHC
It really is breathtaking, if you think about it. The Democratic president's campaign dictated the date and conditions for a far-earlier-than-usual general election debate, in June. The debate happened, and the incumbent lost badly. Then the Republican challenger was shot at a rally. Then the opposition party put on its full convention. And after all of that, it's still undetermined whether the incumbent will be his party's nominee, and whether the proverbial torch would be denied to his younger Vice President, a woman of color with lofty ambitions. Looking ahead, Biden refusing to leave would be wild. The Democrats dumping Biden, and dumping Harris, and trying to proceed with a totally new ticket, with the general election season already underway, would be wild. An under-talented and unpopular Kamala Harris trying to pick up the pieces and quasi-run on her administration's failed record, while also attempting a huge, media-aided political makeover, would be wild. In short, nothing will feel normal about the next few weeks or months. Regardless of scenario, we're in for a turbulent ride ahead.