Tipsheet

A New National Poll With Key Data on the Trump Trial Just Dropped

Leah Barkoukis
Leah Barkoukis  |  May 24, 2024 12:30 PM

How will voters’ opinions of former President Trump change if a guilty verdict is rendered in the hush money trial? According to a new Emerson College survey released Friday, a majority will not be swayed at all. 

In the national poll of U.S. voters, 53 percent said a guilty verdict would not impact their vote. That’s compared to 25 percent who said they’d be less likely to vote for the 45th president if he’s found guilty, and 23 percent who said they’d be even more likely to cast their ballot for Trump if that happens.  

In a two-way race, Trump is ahead of President Biden, 46 percent to 44 percent, and 10 percent are undecided. When pressed on which candidate the undecideds are leaning toward, support for Trump and Biden was evenly split, 50-50 percent. 

In a statement, Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted how the two candidates fared among certain age demographics. 

“Voters under 30 break for Biden by 15 points, with a quarter undecided. When these undecideds are pushed, the group breaks for Biden by 26 points, 63% to 37%, reflective of his margin in 2020 with this group," he noted. 

“That said, Biden trails Trump 41% to 45% among voters in their 30s, among whom he led Trump in 2020,” Kimball continued. “Trump’s support has grown since 2020 among voters in their 50s according to this poll, leading Biden by 19 points, 57% to 38%."

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Biden and Trump’s support both took a hit when third-party candidates were factored into the race, with the 45th president’s support decreasing 2 points to 44 percent, and Biden’s declining 5 points, to 39 percent. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 6 percent support (a 2 percent drop from last month), while Jill Stein and Cornel West only earned 1 percent support. 

The survey of 1,100 registered voters was conducted May 21-23, 2024 and has a credibility interval of +/- 2.9 percentage points.