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What Do We Make of These Latest Battleground State Polls?

Rebecca Downs
Rebecca Downs  |  May 24, 2024 10:00 AM

As we get closer to the 2024 election, we're still just over five months away from November 5. We've pointed out before that the polls could change. That's especially the case when it comes to those polls that are conducted on a regular basis. In late March, for instance, Bloomberg/Morning Consult showed President Joe Biden with a slight lead over former and potentially future President Donald Trump in Wisconsin and that they were tied in Michigan. You would think that Biden was up +50 in each of the seven battleground states. Any polls showing even a slight bit of excitement for Biden are likely to receive considerable attention. Further, for any excitement that there might be about such polls, there's another poll released on battleground states worth examining.

Since then, there's been more polls released. In the latest round from Bloomberg/Morning Consult, Trump leads in give of the seven states. He and Biden are tied in Nevada at 47 percent each, and Biden has a lead of +1 in Michigan, with 46-45 percent. The deeply unpopular incumbent president has been working hard to cater to the radically anti-Israel base in places like Dearborn, after all.

Trump is up by +2 in Biden's home state of Pennsylvania (48-46 percent), by +3 in Georgia (47-44 percent), by +5 in Arizona (49-44 percent), by +1 in Wisconsin (47-46 percent), and by +7 in North Carolina (49-42 percent). 

What's also interesting is how the poll compares Trump to Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden is getting increasingly feeble, and there's chatter he may not make it to the debate that he challenged Trump to. Such a challenge came last week, with multiple cuts in a 13-second video, and Trump immediately accepted, even with the unfair terms the Biden campaign insisted on, and a June 27 debate has been scheduled with CNN moderating. Just as there's been concerns for months that Biden won't make it to the November election, those fears look to once more be coming up.

As Guy covered on Thursday, though, Harris most certainly does not perform better against Trump than Biden does. In fact, Trump leads in all seven of the battleground states. 

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Especially when it comes to the matchups between Trump and Biden, this round of polling might actually be an outlier. Michigan will be particularly close, as RealClearPolling has Trump leading by +1.0 in that state overall. Nevada, where Biden won in 2020 by better margins than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, has been one of Trump's best states when it comes to battleground polling. RealClearPolling shows him with an average lead of +4.6 in Nevada, which is also where former Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak lost reelection in 2022 to now Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican. 

Trump is also performing better in Arizona and Georgia in other polls, with RealClearPolling having his average lead at +4.6 and +4.1, respectively. 

The numbers he has against Harris seem to be more in line with what we've seen from other polls when he's matched against Biden, actually. 

Then there's the headlines about the poll. Never forget how Bloomberg published an opinion piece from Nia-Malika Henderson proclaiming how "Biden Is on a Roll in Key Swing States." The excitement was how he was up +1 in Wisconsin at the time a poll was released in late March, with 46 percent to Trump's 45 percent. It's now Trump who is up in Wisconsin, 47-46 percent. RealClearPolling has Trump at a lead of +0.1 in that key state. Other headlines included "Biden Gains Ground Against Trump in Six Key States, Poll Shows," from Bloomberg and "Biden Takes Lead from Trump in Wisconsin as 2024 Campaign Kicks Into Gear," from Morning Consult. 

Henderson does not appear to have written an opinion piece celebrating how Biden is up +1 in Michigan but back down again in Wisconsin. This time, a headline from Bloomberg notes how "Half of Swing-State Voters Fear Violence Around US Election."

"Half of swing-state voters say they’re worried about violence surrounding the US presidential election, suggesting misgivings about how an acrimonious race and its results will be received by a highly polarized electorate," the piece began, not exactly going for a comforting tone.

As the piece mentioned above the poll:

Across the seven states, the Bloomberg poll of 4,962 registered voters has a statistical margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point and was conducted May 7-13.

In the “Blue Wall” battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Biden and Trump are separated by no more than 2 percentage points. Biden can win the election — or at the very least, force an Electoral College tie — with a sweep of those states and victories in those considered safe turf for Democrats.

Biden also gained ground from April in each of the competitive Sun Belt states. He now trails Trump by 7 points in North Carolina, 5 points in Arizona, 3 in Georgia and is even in Nevada.

Nevada, however, has the largest margin of error of the seven states, and the result is a departure from other recent polls. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll showed Trump leading there by 8 points only a month ago, and a New York Times/Siena College poll released in May had Trump ahead in Nevada by 12 points.

It's still possible for Biden to win the "Blue Wall" battleground states, to be sure. It would actually be embarrassing for him if he didn't. We've been saying this election will be close and competitive, and in these states especially. A win is a win. As it currently stands, though, Trump has the better chance in these states. 

The polls were conducted May 7-13, with margins 4,962 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The margin of error in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania was at plus or minus 3 percentage points, at plus or minus 4 percentage points in Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Tellingly, the margin of error was at plus or minus 5 percentage points in Nevada, which is another reason to pause as it shows Trump and Biden supposedly tied there. 

But again, this wasn't the only poll released. Also this week, more battleground polls are out, this one from the's Cook Political Report survey of battleground states, which utilized a Democratic polling firm, BSG, and a Republican one, GS Strategy Group. 

This poll shows Trump and Biden tied in Wisconsin at 45 percent each, but otherwise Trump leads in the six of the remaining swing state polls. In Arizona, Trump leas by +1 (45-44 percent), by +3 in Georgia (47-44 percent), +2 in Michigan (47-45 percent), by +9 in Nevada (49-40 percent), by +7 in North Carolina (48-41 percent), and by +3 in Pennsylvania (48-45 percent). We told you that Trump and Biden being tied in Nevada is likely an outlier, as is the case with the Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll above.

When third party candidates are included, Trump still performs better than Biden in all of them, except in Wisconsin where they're both still tied. In some states, Trump's lead even goes up, as it does in Arizona (41-37 percent), Georgia, (42-38 percent), Michigan (43-40 percent), and North Carolina (44-36 percent). 

A press release from Cook Political Report about the poll's release highlighted how "Cost of Living Concerns Help Boost Trump in Battleground States," with analysis from Amy Walter and David Wasserman highlighting how "[w]hile abortion remains a strong issue for Democrats, Biden’s advantage on the issue isn’t strong enough to offset Trump’s overall strength on bringing down the cost of living."

Another takeaway similarly notes that "Voters More Worried About Biden Setting Economic Policy and Immigration Policy Than Trump Setting Abortion Policy."

The poll included 3,969 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points. There were 527 likely voters in Arizona for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points, 600 likely voters in Georgia for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, 606 likely voters in Michigan for a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points there too, 402 likely voters in Nevada for a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, 601 likely voters in North Carolina for a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points, 730 likely voters in Pennsylvania for a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, and 503 likely voters in Wisconsin for a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.