Tipsheet

Poll: Would Kamala Harris Be Stronger Than Biden Against Trump?

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  May 23, 2024 2:15 PM

Bloomberg's pollster is out with a new batch of its regularly-released swing state data -- and it's (mostly) more of the same. We'll get to my question about Kamala Harris below, but first, here's what the fresh polling shows: Donald Trump leads narrowly-to-modestly over Joe Biden in five of the seven battlegrounds surveyed.  Trump and Biden are tied in Nevada -- a good result for Biden, compared with both the recent New York Times poll showing him down double digits there, and the state average.  Biden leads only in Michigan, and only by one point.  As usual, the 'big three' midwestern states are extremely close, while Trump has a bit more breathing room in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.  When Bloomberg/MC presented respondents with a wider field in its ballot test, including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Trump generally benefited, albeit slightly:

Arizona
Head-to-head: Trump +5
Wider field: Trump +5

Georgia
Head-to-head: Trump +3
Wider field: Trump +5

Michigan 
Head-to-head: Biden +1
Wider field: Biden +2

Nevada
Head-to-head: Tied
Wider field: Trump +5

North Carolina
Head-to-head: Trump +7
Wider field: Trump +8

Pennsylvania
Head-to-head: Trump +2
Wider field: Trump +3

Wisconsin
Head-to-head: Trump +1
Wider field: Trump +1

Trump's margin either remains the same or inches upward in all of the states, except Michigan (where Biden's margin increases by a tick), and Nevada (where Trump takes a mid-single-digit lead).  Generally, the trendlines don't look dramatically disrupted by this set of surveys, and veteran GOP operative Liam Donovan is right that people shouldn't read too much into week-by-week or month-by-month statistical noise -- a point we highlighted Nate Silver making yesterday.  "We have to stop thinking in these terms or we're all go nuts by July," he writes:


Based on the margin of error, what's not "noise" is Kamala Harris' performance in hypothetical direct match-ups against Trump.  One of the constant murmurs in political discussions surrounds Democrats replacing Biden on the ticket.  Some people see the highly unusual pre-conventions debate next month, proposed by the Biden campaign, as a possible final gut-check test for the party about its near-certain nominee.  If they decide this sort of thing cannot go on, then what?  Bypassing the sitting Vice President, who desperately covets power and has displayed an eagerness to exploit her identitarian credentials in order to blunt criticism, would be risky and perilous business.  But so would nominating her for president.  The RealClearPolitics polling average pegs Biden's job approval rating at 16 points underwater.  Harris' is 21 points underwater.  Biden's personal favorability is upside-down by roughly 13 points; hers is a bit worse.  And in the swing state polling featured in this post, Harris gets beaten handily by Trump:

Arizona:
Trump 51 (+9)
Harris 42

Georgia:
Trump 49 (+8)
Harris 41

Michigan:
Trump 47 (+3)
Harris 44

Nevada:
Trump 47 (+3)
Harris 44

North Carolina:
Trump 50 (+10)
Harris 40

Pennsylvania:
Trump 50 (+7)
Harris 43

Wisconsin:
Trump 49 (+8)
Harris 41

She is, objectively, a worse option for Democrats than the frail, unpopular octogenarian incumbent.  Throwing the entire ticket overboard, and millions of primary election votes along with it, would be hugely risky.  Enjoy:

Separately, I'll leave you with a few reminders that social media isn't real life.  Note that the second poll is of residents of deep blue New York:

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