There has been plenty of grumbling about 2024 being a rematch of 2020 between current President Joe Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump. It was a narrative Trump's primary opponents went with for some time until they started dropping out. Trump has since received the endorsement of many of his primary opponents, with some even in the running to be his running mate. That the American people have to choose between a current and former president actually looks good for Trump, though. Polls have shown a sense of nostalgia for Trump, and continue to do so.
On Wednesday, Cygnal released its latest poll of registered voters in 39 battleground districts and 20 states. As the headline mentions in part, "TRUMP'S FIRST-TERM APPROVAL HITS NEW HIGHS." Luckily for them, voters who have a fondness for Trump's term have a chance to elect him again.
Trump is now at a 48.3 percent job approval rating, while Biden is experiencing just a 37.5 percent approval rating.
"Among key voter groups like college-educated women, married women, and black voters, Trump's approval has also jumped five percent," the poll states.
In our new national #battlegrounds poll, @realDonaldTrump overshadows @JoeBiden by 10 points in latest job approval numbers. Trump: 48% / Biden: 38% - Key voter group standouts: College-edu women, married women, and black voters pic.twitter.com/GWMUp73PN4
— Cygnal Polling & Analytics (@cygnal) May 15, 2024
When it comes to the demographics that support Biden, they don't by much.
The poll also highlights the bracket showing that a majority of those key suburban voters disapprove of Biden, with 56 percent saying they do. Barely a majority of female college-educated voters (51 percent) and black voters (54 percent) approve of Biden's job performance. Further, just 77 percent of Biden's fellow Democrats, 73 percent of liberals, and 74 percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 approve. While those are indeed majorities, those approval numbers for Trump among his fellow Republicans (93 percent), conservatives (88 percent), and those who voted for him in 2020 (94 percent) are much higher.
Trump's also leading Biden by 47 to 45 percent, "with the ballot narrowing since March," one of the poll's takeaways notes. That bullet point also contains some words of advice, "Trump needs to stall the hemorrhaging among Hispanic voters and single women."
More advice that the poll's takeaways offer concerns the legal cases against Trump. Voters actually consider the legal proceedings to be legitimate. The poll mentions:
- Most voters view Trump’s legal proceedings as legitimate and a plurality feel they will hurt his chances at winning the general election.
- Traditional Democrat audiences are driving most of the negative opinion here (women, minorities, and college-educated voters).
- Trump needs to work on highlighting Democrat’s extreme agenda among these voters.
Another narrative, particularly how this isn't great for Biden, has to do with the lack of needed support from key demographics, such as black voters. It was referenced above how Trump has made gains in his approval ratings with black voters; it's now at 34 percent among the demographic, with an 8 percent change from March 2024 to May 2024. That's equal to the change Trump saw in his approval rating among married female voters, and just a tiny bit more than the 7 percent change since then with single male voters.
The poll also asked voters which party they consider more extreme. The Republican Party was viewed as only slightly more extreme, with 46.8 percent saying so, compared to 44.1 percent who say so about the Democratic Party. Black voters once more come into this, as by 55-37 percent, they actually consider the Democratic Party to be more extreme.
Paul Bedard of the Washington Examiner highlighted as much on Wednesday, noting, "Black voters fleeing Biden and Democrats over inflation and extremism."
Black voters fleeing Biden and Democrats over inflation and extremism @cygnal @brockmccleary 'Democrats are in trouble with black voters, as the number of those saying the Dems are more extreme than GOP has increased by 20%'https://t.co/BLFLKHlQCM via @dcexaminer pic.twitter.com/UXa7MaisFk
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) May 15, 2024
As Bedard's write-up mentions, citing Vice President of Polling Brock McCleary throughout:
Vice President of Polling Brock McCleary told Secrets on Wednesday morning, “Democrats are in trouble with black voters, as the number of those saying the Democrat Party is more extreme than the Republican Party has increased by 20% since March. Biden is similarly in trouble, with over a third having an unfavorable view of the president, and it’s largely because they’re most concerned with the cost of living and not ideological issues like climate change and election integrity that his administration has chosen to prioritize.”
For some black and women voters upset with Biden, the choice is former President Donald Trump.
Bedard also addresses the point mentioned earlier, which is that voters have a sense of "nostalgia" for Trump and his presidency:
Cygnal’s survey of 1,500 likely general election voters revealed one possible reason why voters continue to give Trump a slight edge in general election matchups four years after Biden beat the Republican.
In a word, it’s “nostalgia,” pollster McCleary said.
“Nostalgia for Trump’s first term continues to gain steam. Battleground voters now give Trump positive job approval for his four years in the White House while disapproval of Biden remains high,” he said.
The poll also delves into discussing specific topics. Regarding the most important issues, two have about even amounts of support. Inflation and immigration remain top issues for voters, which have been particularly bad ones for Biden. Countless polls show voters prefer Trump on these issues, often by double digits. With this latest Cygnal poll, 26.8 percent say "inflation and cost of living" is their top issue, while 24.6 percent say "border security and illegal immigration."
There's also specific attention paid to more presently topical issues, such as the pro-Hamas protests taking place on college campuses across the country as well as the Biden administration's rewriting of Title IX rules to hurt women and girls in sports, rather than open doors for them as has been the case for over 50 years now.
"Do you support or oppose allowing pro-Palestinian demonstrators that call for the death of Jews to hold protests on elite college campuses?" the poll asks about such protests, at least being honest about what the agitators are calling for. In response, 81.7 percent said they were opposed, while just 7.8 percent said they supported such protesters. Voters were actually more likely to say they were unsure, with 10.5 percent saying so.
The demographics most likely to support the protests included 15 percent of voters under 44, 15 percent of liberals, and 20 percent of black voters.
Respondents were also asked to share their emotions about the protests, and the top four most common out of seven response options were negative, including "sad" (32.3 percent), "antisemitic" (31.3 percent), "offensive" (28.1 percent) and "violent" (26.1 percent). The least chosen response was the 4 percent who said such protests were "effective." Respondents were more likely to say they were "unsure" (14.2 percent) than say they were "effective" or "powerful" (11.5 percent). Just 17.3 percent said they were "justified."
To put calls of violence into further context, a plurality of voters sympathize with the protesters, but only to an extent. For 43.6 percent of respondents, their view was closest to the idea that "I sympathize with the pro-Palestinian protesters, but I believe calling for the death of Jews is unacceptable." Not far off was the 40.6 percent who said, "I believe Israel's actions in Gaza are justified in response to Hamas' terrorist attacks in Israel against innocent women and children in October of 2023."
Just 3.1 percent said, "I fully support the pro-Palestinian protestors in demonstrating against the war Israel is waging in Gaza, even if it includes calls for the death of Jews." Those most likely to hold such a view included 8 percent of voters under 44, 5 percent of Democrats, 7 percent of liberals, and 9 percent of black voters.
Democrats are in disarray over supporting Israel or its enemies, but Title IX and upending protections for girls and women in sports is particularly problematic for the president.
The poll's takeaways highlight [emphasis original]:
- Over 60% of voters disagree with Biden’s Title IX rule change, nearly half strongly disagree.
- Even Biden’s most ardent supporters disagree. Two-thirds of black voters, Independents, and voters in open seats plus a majority of women, urban voters, and voters with a Democrat incumbent disagree. Even a third of Democrats and 2020 Biden voters oppose the rules change.
- A majority of voters strongly agree that states should be able to pass laws that maintain protections solely for biological women.
- Liberals are the only group to disagree overall, but only by 1-point[, by 43-42 percent].
Given how it's part of the Democratic base that is in the minority view on these issues, that ought to be something the Trump campaign and Republicans in general can focus on when it comes to the November election.
McCreary appears to feel as much, too. As Bedard mentions, "McCleary told us the matters are affecting support for the Democrats."
The poll was conducted May 6-8, with 1,500 likely general election voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.45 percentage points.